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I guess if you are a cold lover it's considered a benefit.
EC model on board as well. But again, I doubt this will result in brutally cold temps as we are moving into the back end of winter, but below average temps may dominate the time period
Like all many others I follow weather fans (cold and hot) as well as certified meteorologists who forecast weather.
I've posted Judah Cohen's insight many times, and here is what he is saying:
Quote:
Figure 8. a) Forecasted 10 mb geopotential heights (dam; contours) and geopotential height anomalies (m; shading) for 31 January – 4 February 2016 b) same as a) except for 5 – 9 February 2016 across the Northern Hemisphere. The forecast is from the 00Z 25 January 2016 GFS ensemble.
As we have discussed previously in the blog, the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere warms the polar cap heights in the polar stratosphere and forces a negative AO trend in the stratosphere. And the models predict that the cold polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCH) or the strong polar vortex in the stratosphere to be erased and reverse to warm by early February (Figure 9). However the energy burst forces the opposite in the troposphere resulting in a cooling PCH and a positive AO trend, which can be seen with a predicted cold PCH in the lower troposphere over the coming week. A cold PCH in the troposphere is strongly related to a positive AO and an overall mild temperature pattern across the NH continents. However following the SSW, the associated circulation anomalies of positive geopotential height anomalies and warm temperatures over the Arctic and negative geopotential height anomalies and cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes propagate down from the stratosphere to the troposphere.
Quote:
The timing and exact location of the return to colder weather across the Eastern United States and Europe is complicated by the relatively long duration and complex evolution of the polar vortex. Though we were uncertain of the return of cold weather to the Eastern United States, the convergence of the model predictions of building geopotential heights across northwestern North America and the return of cross polar flow increase our confidence in more Arctic outbreaks into the Central and Eastern United States in February. The initial position and orientation of the polar vortex in the Barents Kara Seas and Northern Scandinavia (Figure 8) favor at least initially a mild maritime flow of air across Europe. However as the SSW evolves the possible penetration of the polar vortex deeper into western Eurasia, should result in a transition from a mild overall pattern to a cold overall pattern for Europe. And if the polar vortex should split as we have anticipated, with one lobe sinking into Europe and a second drifting towards eastern North America this would likely lead to a cold pattern for both the Eastern United States and Europe.
" On Monday a record was measured in Geilenkirchen: 18.3 degrees was the temperature there - as never seen so warm in January, since the beggining of the weather records. A week before, the inhabitants of Geilenkirchen were still shivering at -0.3 C (31F). "
I guess if you are a cold lover it's considered a benefit.
EC model on board as well. But again, I doubt this will result in brutally cold temps as we are moving into the back end of winter, but below average temps may dominate the time period
That didn't seem to be an issue last winter for a lot of the Eastern US. KY recorded a -32 F on February 20.
17,2c in Sunndalsøra today. Only 0,7c below the all time high for Norway in january. 15 stations broke their record today or yesterday.
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