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I was talking about the CFS anomaly charts you've posted.
Ok I see. CFSv2 is probably too cool. Beyond the 6-10 day. They will probably show some modification with each run. Though the EC is showing cool conditions on day 10. I wish I had the access to the EC's 5 day increments maps.
Is below average temps and above average sun a common occurrence?
In winter that's normal, but in summer below average temps always means below average sun. Sometimes we get above average temps and below average sun (eg July 2010). August has been terrible since 2005, though.
I noticed that WeatherOniline has downgraded warm weather for the end of the forecast period. They were showing a couple of 30C days just yesterday.
The models were constantly pushing back and downgrading the hot spell last week, and then backtracked at the last second. I expect the same will happen this August. I wouldn't be so sure that we've already seen the hottest day of 2016.
August will probably be the sunniest month of the summer, and it certainly should be for once! It does feel like it'll never see average temps or sun again.
At least an average August woulf be well deserved. How often does August record higher absolute max temps than July?
Not that often. Since 1900, July has had the warmest day of the year 60 times, June and August 27 and 28 respectively. In the past 30 years though it's been more equal. August had the warmest day of the year 5 times in the 1990s. In the 2000s, June had the warmest day of the year most often.
What would be nice is an entire decade of Augusts with average highs above 24c, and 260 hrs sun each. That would help undo the damage that the last 10 years has done.
At least an average August woulf be well deserved. How often does August record higher absolute max temps than July?
I don't know about the UK, but I've seen many summers with a better August than a July where I grew up in Lyon, including several cases where the absolute high came after August 15th, sometimes after August 20th.
I'm not sure these August heatwaves cross the channel usually though.
August in Seattle is usually warmer than July even though July usually sees the record-breaking temperatures. Also, September is usually nicer than June.
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