Fall 2014 Thread - Northern Hemisphere (snow, warm, warming, blizzard)

[chicagogeorge]

High was 17C at ORD, 18C at MDW and also 18C here in the south suburbs today....


Cold winter weather fans are going to love this

The current SST anomaly map below shows an near identical pattern to the +PDO graphic above.

What does this mean for this upcoming winter?

Spatial correlation maps between the PDO and U.S. temperatures for the months of November, December, and January are shown below.

BOTTOM LINE: The north Pacific has evolved into a strong +PDO state. In addition to the +PDO, the atmosphere is also in a weak-to-moderate El Nino base state. A new downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has formed and will likely further warm the ENSO 3.4 index later this month in through December. Winters that were in a similar state (+PDO/El Nino) were associated with mild temperatures over the West and cold temperatures along the East coast. The way the low frequency signals are setting up, the folks in the Southeast/eastern seaboard could be in store for a big winter

September Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Value 5th Highest since 1960; ENSO Update « WSI Blog

[Rozenn]

Originally Posted by dean york

Are you still in Paris, or have you moved down south?

I've moved down south (Nice area). That would be an epic forecast for Paris.

[Dean York]

Originally Posted by Rozenn

I've moved down south (Nice area). That would be an epic forecast for Paris.

Ah you've basically swapped with Dhdh then! Lucky you, I'm very jealous.

[Rozenn]

And poor dhdh! Though unlike him I like Paris.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Rozenn

I'm under an orange alert for thunderstorms. Here's the raw GFS forecast for where I work:

so the high for the 5th is at 1 am?

[Cambium]

Danbury, CT Low of 26°F this morning rose to a high of 58°F

Binghamton,NY 29° to 57°

Elkins, WV 21°/-6C to 59°/15C

Norfolk, VA 25°/-4C to 63°/17C

[Rozenn]

Originally Posted by nei

so the high for the 5th is at 1 am?

Looks like it. Not uncommon in Paris and I guess in Nice as well. Is it rare where you live?

[nei]

Originally Posted by Rozenn

Looks like it. Not uncommon in Paris and I guess in Nice as well. Is it rare where you live?

once in a while from fronts. But otherwise, rare. Diurnal range is too big I guess.

[Rozenn]

Diurnal range is quite small here in comparison. But the low morning humidity/high afternoon dew points on some days make it feel bigger than it is.

The show is beginning btw. Kaboom.

[tommyFL]

Originally Posted by tommyFL

I wouldn't be too surprised if Archbold Biological Station records a freeze Sunday morning. It's on the Lake Wales Ridge, a high and dry sandy ridge that always records lower temps than the area around it. The difference is often as much as 10F just because of the soil.

Ah, so close. No freeze, though those are some mighty big departures.