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Am I the only one that doesn't believe the Eastern U.S cold coming? Brutal winter so far here, just depressing and torture. Not even 1/2 inch of snow yet.
Latest Euro says after Christmas a ridge builds in the East. I can see that with a giant storm cutting to the Great Lakes will carve a ridge in the atmosphere and push it up the East. Atmosphere has memory so it will probably continue it for longer.
10-20 above normal surface temps after Christmas. Don't believe the cold hype until it happens. I'd rather have a 200°F summer than a normal or warm winter.
I just remembered my rule of thumb. In a cold pattern don't believe the warmupshowing in long range until it happened or at least gets within 2 days. Vise Versa in a warm pattern don't believe the cold coming. In a normal pattern it can go either way.
This quote from JB tells you all you need to know:
"How about this year. The number one analog by the weatherbell.com team right now is 02-03. But 77-78 is really on its tail. 76-77 in there too, but as the season has matured 77-78 comes to the front. There was a monster storm that went into the lakes in late January, bombed out to 956. Thats the kind of year that was. California got SLAMMED with rain. People love that winter, but most of you in I-95 dont remember that there was one big storm ( unforecasted if you remember) late in January after 2 had come with alot of non snow, and then came the blizzard that made everything right. From State College west, it was a big snow year, though the huge lake storm, in 1978 and believe me, this one coming is going to be a pain in the neck with storm force winds in the midwest with backlash snows there and the rain on the coast for a time, was a big rainstorm for alot of people. But if we look at the SST in the winter of 77-78 and 02-03. it looks a heck of alot like what we have going now.."
When a supposed professional meteorologist talks about blizzards as "made everything right", and wicked winter storms as wonderful things, you know you are dealing with a very strange and biased individual. He assumes that everyone loves wicked winter storms that kill people and cause mayhem, panic and just overall terrible things. Plain and simple he is a crackpot extremist in everything, not just meteorology.
AT THIS TIME...CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AXIS OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES CWA BETWEEN MID DAY AND SUNSET CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA AND BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. ONSET OF GUSTY NW
WINDS...CAUSING ADVECTION OF DRIER/COOLER AIR BY LATE DAY/SUNSET.
I just hope this low pressure keeps its moisture as it travels into eastern Georgia. Too many times these gulf coast lows will either rain out by the time they get here, or take a more northeast (instead of east) track into the Ohio valley essentially giving us a dry, rainless cold front. Less than a tenth of an inch in my area so far this December. Forecast is showing lots of rain here next week. Hope it holds up.
I just hope this low pressure keeps its moisture as it travels into eastern Georgia. Too many times these gulf coast lows will either rain out by the time they get here, or take a more northeast (instead of east) track into the Ohio valley essentially giving us a dry, rainless cold front. Less than a tenth of an inch in my area so far this December. Forecast is showing lots of rain here next week. Hope it holds up.
It looks like my area will get most of its rain tomorrow with not that much predicted for next week.
The South Atlantic states are looking wet early next week.
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