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All guess that will flip flop. I will say.... Last year had the most consistent results showing cold than I remember. This year it's a lot of dancing with different results. Good luck to all forecasters. lol
The fact the the North Pacific is now seeing those huge positive anomalies again (never really left) will probably mean another western ridge set up, with an eastern trough down stream this winter.
"Get a load of all that blue across most of the United States! The model is going crazy with colder than normal weather, especially for the central and southern part of the country. This includes Colorado, which is shaded in more than just light blue. The darker the blue, the colder the forecast. This would suggest a higher than normal probability of below normal temperatures during the heart of the winter months for Colorado"
"The heart of the winter shows up with generally normal moisture for Colorado, with a slightly wetter than normal signal for far Southern Colorado. I think most of us would take a winter with normal snowfall, as they have been hard to come by of late. Either the mountains get hammered and the lower elevations don’t, or vice versa. Those winters when both the plains and mountains see good snowfall have been rare to say the least. However, the signal the model is set on is dry from central California into the Pacific Northwest (bad) and wet from Eastern New Mexico into the Mid-Atlantic. Look familiar? Pretty identical to the second map I showed you in this post"
Steve D is a meteo for the Mid Atlantic US area but does Long Range forecasting and uses science more than models. I'll never forget his famous line... "It's meteorology, not modelology!" LMAO That was great!
Anyway... Here's part of a discussion of his from this morning (He has one every morning for members)
"In almost every year where such a SSTA like what we are seeing here in the early Fall, a very stormy and volatile winter weather pattern develops, notice I didn't say "cold" .... This sets up an interesting dynamic heading into the rest of September, October, and of course into the Winter Season. Now, I'm sure you have seen all these Winter Forecast out already proclaiming a cold and stormy winter is on the way. As you know, I hold off on such forecasts until October."
And here's a look at the SSTA he's talking about.. Warm waters in North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska = Ridge in West/Trough in East. And of course you have to factor in El Nino, Sunspots, Siberian snow growth, Hudson Bay Ice, Stratosphere temps and winds, ect, ect, ect.
I'm looking forward to it. Days will start getting longer again!
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