2014-15 Winter Thread (Northern Hemisphere) (april, coldest, temps, moist)

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

WSI Energy has an interesting post on the upcoming winter.... Euro model suggesting:







^^

That scenario has this analog




The Euro looks like this for the winter






North America

December 2006 and January 2007 sucked. February had a very good cold spell, and a decent amount of snow.

Average highs----lows----- snow fall (MDW)

Dec: 43.4F-----30.7F------- 3.3"
Jan:36.0F------24.9F--------4.3"
Feb: 25.1F-----12.6F--------21.1"

Is that Feb Euro map mis-labelled? It states "March 2015" not Feb.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Is that Feb Euro map mis-labelled? It states "March 2015" not Feb.

Yeah you are right it is. Just saw that. So it maybe that both February and March will be below average according to the long range Euro runs

[Zephanoa]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

WSI Energy has an interesting post on the upcoming winter.... Euro model suggesting:







^^

That scenario has this analog




The Euro looks like this for the winter






North America

December 2006 and January 2007 sucked. February had a very good cold spell, and a decent amount of snow.

Average highs----lows----- snow fall (MDW)

Dec: 43.4F-----30.7F------- 3.3"
Jan:36.0F------24.9F--------4.3"
Feb: 25.1F-----12.6F--------21.1"

Ugg.... I strongly hope this wouldn't happen. Here in SW Mo we had a terrible ice storm that year. So bad that it shut down most of commerce for about 2 weeks. Millions of dollars of damage throughout the area.

[Zephanoa]

Originally Posted by Zephanoa

Ugg.... I strongly hope this wouldn't happen. Here in SW Mo we had a terrible ice storm that year. So bad that it shut down most of commerce for about 2 weeks. Millions of dollars of damage throughout the area.

This is a photo from then!

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Yeah you are right it is. Just saw that. So it maybe that both February and March will be below average according to the long range Euro runs

George, did you get that Euro forecast from WeatherBell? I can't find the Euro on the web. Is that free?

[Cambium]

Quotes From Alan Huffman today (owns the model suite here)

Here is an interesting winter climo indice stat. Since 1950, 17 Dec-Feb periods average between 0.4 and 1.4. Or weak/mod El Nino. Of those 17, 8 had a QBO that averaged negative in the same period. Of those 8 winters all 8 had a DJF with negative AO, and 7 of 8 had a negative NAO .1979-80 exception with 0.1

We are expected a weak/mod El Nino, and a -QBO this winter. This stat and also some past QBO research, suggests frequent blocking this winter

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx

[Summerwhale]

I am going to Aberdeen in October end, so I might see some snow then.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

George, did you get that Euro forecast from WeatherBell? I can't find the Euro on the web. Is that free?

No it's not from Weatherbell it is from WSI energy. It's in the link that I gave, it's on the previous page here it is


North America

[sicksburgh]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

He also said that after this very cold winter, there will be some mild winters to follow.

I doubt this winter will top last winter in terms of cold. As for all of the the preliminary winter forecasts, lest we forget what they all said back in Fall of 2011.

[Cambium]

Honestly... last year wasn't cold. At least for here it wasn't. Or at least for my liking. Comfortable, yes but cold for winter? Not really. Whats scary is how deep, how cold, or how the setup has to be to be colder here or match colder winters on record.

Sure I hadn't seen the Long Island Sound freeze over since the 90s but there seemed to be too many warmups.

Put it this way... 17 other winters were colder here since 1948.. Even 2010-11 was a tad colder per average.

So bring on a deeper winter!