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Looked at the raw data and saw the Euro similar to GFS saying multiple days of precip. Euro is all snow, GFS has ice/mix involved.
Here's the Euro..
Basically a polar front sets up south of New England Sun. (that means we're on the cold side here, north of blue line). (Poor South Jersey)
Moisture rides along the front so that means snow. Monday morning the front is still to the south and moisture still around then a storm develops off the coast Monday night so more snow Tuesday possible.
That means maybe 3 days of Snow/Snowshowers 4 some. Lets call it..."unsettled" weather right now. What a pattern. The placement of that front is critical to who gets snow or mix or rain!
Discussions:
NWS Boston
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
THU NIGHT...DANGEROUSLY COLD WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN RESPONSE TO NNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH! LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AS VALUES FALL TO -15 TO -20F ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY UNSETTLED AS POLAR FRONT SETS
UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ARCTIC HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVIDES MOIST
POLAR MARITIME FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. HENCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP
SETUP. THEN ALL MODELS AGREE ON TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE OH
VALLEY WHICH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID ATLC STATES LATE SUN
INTO MON...THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUE. TOO EARLY FOR
DETAILS BUT GIVEN PROLONG PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL/OCEAN STORM...INCREASED RISK FOR APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL LATER
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NWS NY NY
Quote:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON THURSDAY. HI PRES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION THU
NGT...AND OVER THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH
SAT...AND PASS SAT NGT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS ON SUN. THE
FRONT WILL STALL S OF THE AREA SUN NGT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY MON. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NGT. THE
LOW WILL PASS S OF LONG ISLAND TUE.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE GFS
IS KICKING OFF THE ACTIVITY IN THE SAT NGT PERIOD. A MID 1030S HI
BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA ON SUN. LOW AND MID LVL FROGEN OCCURS AS
THE UPR JET REMAINS OVER OR JUST N OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE SFC FRONT S OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FCST SUN AND
SUN NGT.
For those out east who don't like winter weather.... Don't look at this
Seriously.. this is becoming a memorable winter and the first half is getting completely forgotten quick.
I mean there are areas of Maine that has gotten over 70 inches since January 24th. WTF!? And more is coming? I bet there are back hoes hauling snow away left and right.
Seriously.. this is becoming a memorable winter and the first half is getting completely forgotten quick.
I mean there are areas of Maine that has gotten over 70 inches since January 24th. WTF!? And more is coming? I bet there are back hoes hauling snow away left and right.
And this is the wind chill forecast in 3 days.
Yeah same here. This February is beginning to remind me of Fed 2007
I haven't gotten an idea what the depth of the snowpack is. The met institute say 13 cm, but there's definitely not that much on the ground, more like 6 cm.
They didn't look out the window yesterday and saw that the half melted when it touched the ground?
I haven't gotten an idea what the depth of the snowpack is. The met institute say 13 cm, but there's definitely not that much on the ground, more like 6 cm.
They didn't look out the window yesterday and saw that the half melted when it touched the ground?
Our cold blasts have been associated with high pressure in the west and a dry west coast (especially California). Mild December here was a wet California, dry California last month was associated with much colder weather. California is forecast to get rain next week. Does that mean a pattern change or is it change a brief event not changing the overall pattern.
Meanwhile, much of eastern New England is reeling from the one-two punch of heavy snows last week and again this week, with an intervening lighter storm only adding insult to injury. From January 24 through February 2, Boston racked up 47.9” of snow; according to the Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen, this is the largest total for any ten-day period on record in Boston. The town of Lunenburg, about 45 miles west of Boston, did even better (or worse) as it notched 36.6” and 19.7” from Juno and Linus, respectively, for a grand total of 56.3” of snowfall. Bangor, Maine, reported 45" of snow on the ground Tuesday morning, the most since a record 53" in February-March 1969. A weak clipper will bring more light snow to the Midwest and Northeast later this week, followed by a shot of bitter cold. Looking further out, winter-weary and wary New Englanders could get pummeled by yet another significant snow by the weekend, although model guidance so far has been inconsistent.
We've had some insane lows the past couple of nights. We've dropped into single digits 4 of the past 7 days, whereas normally we'd only drop this low twice per year. Awesome!
The only downside is that near-zero winter cold is becoming less of a novelty and more of a mundane experience now. Longing for -40 degrees
Westhampton Beach dropped below zero (-18C) on three separate occasions during the past seven days. I'm talking about a coastal location at 40N.
Mine is 18 inches (45cm) but quickly decreasing. Today is forecast to be sunny with 41F (5C), the warmest day in weeks. Major melting will occur.
Last edited by Shalop; 02-04-2015 at 09:41 AM..
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WTF!? And more is coming? I bet there are back hoes hauling snow away left and right.
