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I'm sure it will change as time goes on. I really doubt they can tell what Feb and March will bring this far out.
I did a test around 10 days ago. I saved the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble forecasts for October 21st. I'll wait till October 21st to see what pans out, but it doesn't look like the Euro got it right at all. If they can't get 15 days ahead correct, how can we have confidence in months away?
If they can't get 15 days ahead correct, how can we have confidence in months away?
Yup, my theory is consistency and multiple models. If Euro or whatever consistently shows it, confidence is higher or if multiple models show it another confidence builder. That's pretty much all we can do. Then wait see & keep following.
This year seems to be flip flopping and different senarios on them. Last year seemed pretty consistent with a cold scenario with the CFS and JMA. I forget what the Euro was showing..
CFS showing the Polar Vortex on the other side. Doesn't mean we cant get cold but the core and cold stuff not in N. America.
This frame is January 14th but play the rest and see.
Yup, my theory is consistency and multiple models. If Euro or whatever consistently shows it, confidence is higher or if multiple models show it another confidence builder. That's pretty much all we can do. Then wait see & keep following.
This year seems to be flip flopping and different senarios on them. Last year seemed pretty consistent with a cold scenario with the CFS and JMA. I forget what the Euro was showing..
CFS showing the Polar Vortex on the other side. Doesn't mean we cant get cold but the core and cold stuff not in N. America.
This frame is January 14th but play the rest and see.
Yup, my theory is consistency and multiple models. If Euro or whatever consistently shows it, confidence is higher or if multiple models show it another confidence builder. That's pretty much all we can do. Then wait see & keep following.
This year seems to be flip flopping and different senarios on them. Last year seemed pretty consistent with a cold scenario with the CFS and JMA. I forget what the Euro was showing..
CFS showing the Polar Vortex on the other side. Doesn't mean we cant get cold but the core and cold stuff not in N. America.
This frame is January 14th but play the rest and see.
I'm sure it will change as time goes on. I really doubt they can tell what Feb and March will bring this far out.
I did a test around 10 days ago. I saved the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble forecasts for October 21st. I'll wait till October 21st to see what pans out, but it doesn't look like the Euro got it right at all. If they can't get 15 days ahead correct, how can we have confidence in months away?
No I agree, model skill drop the further out you go, but I think looking at SST analogs might give us some insight in what to expect.
I recall 09/10' when we had a Modoki El Nino, and a persistent negative NAO/AO/Greenland Block.
This might have implications for winter. Not sure how
Quote:
Other private weather forecasters are predicting a slightly cooler winter than NOAA.
Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecast at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts, has pioneered winter forecasts that link colder Eastern U.S. weather to years when there is more snow on the ground in Siberia in October. It's still early and October isn't finished, but the month has started out unusually snowy in Siberia, which preliminarily points to a cooler winter for east of the Mississippi River, he said.
Halpert said Cohen's method is intriguing but NOAA needs more years to show that it works as forecast tool.
Ryan Maue of the private WeatherBell Analytics of New York predicts that "a vast majority of the nation will experience significant periods of below-normal temperatures this winter, with the coldest temperatures (relative to normal) occurring in the Ohio Valley and up through the Eastern Plains."
That looks very diff from SST at this time though. Much warmer overall in the NE Pacific.
Yes I know, though that warm anomaly may erode over the month of November..... If it doesn't, wouldn't a warmer NE Pacific just reinforce more shots of cold for the eastern CONUS?
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