First Snowfall Eastern U.S Oct31-Nov2, 2014 (warming, day, city)

[Cambium]

My update from overnight models:


GFS: Basically pretty much no precip (less than 1/2" in northeast) except for over WV, western Virginia and Eastern North Carolina (about an inch). Bulk precip over Atlantic. Snow for only interior higher elevations

Canadian: Warmest. Most precip over PA, NY, NYC, Northern NJ, Long Island, Coastal CT, SouthEast Maine. Snow only higher elevations of WV, VA, OH

NAVGEM: Most precip over Buffalo area, Western PA, Central Virginia, SouthEast Maine.

EURO: Still the more robust one but most precip over Maine, WV, Virginia, Delmarva area and South NJ. Bulk over the Atlantic. Snow accumulations North Central Ohio, higher elevations of WV, TN, VA, NC, MD, PA. All of Maine.

To me... right now... Consensus says only Higher Elevation snows. Similar to what GFS showed about 7-10 days out. Interesting!

[Saritra]

Northeast Ohio somewhat-high-elevation snow still likely?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Saritra

Northeast Ohio somewhat-high-elevation snow still likely?

Almost seems as if they are saying the air sinks over land and rises off the coast which would mean less precip over land, more off the coast. Chances definitely have been lowered but its still Wednesday.

There's still a wide range of solutions, this wont be a snowstorm for you by any means but snow chances still there. Especially with a northwest flow over the lakes.

Look how far the freezing line goes at 850mb per Euro! NAM says Florida panhandle.

Look at that Low off NJ coast with below freezing temps aloft.

Also good to point out... as the energies come into an area with better data models starting to converge. I noticed they got slightly warmer with the air aloft.

[Cambium]

On Thursday (tomorrow) at about 11:30am (if time allows), I'll be posting every frame of the GFS12z and explaining what its showing for Friday morning to Sunday morning. Should be fun whatever it is.

Example.. NAM updating right now. This is Friday 8am showing the strong Arctic 1039mb High dropping down. 850mb freezing line down to Virginia. Low pressure system inside the trough near Great Lakes, lightly snowing/scattered flurries over Central Ohio, Michigan, Buffalo area.

[Cubanchic]

Well We are suppose to wake up in south Florida in the 50's on Saturday and that in it self is such a treat this early. Hopefully this winter the jet stream will dip down enough for us to get a few cold snaps for the season.

[Summerwhale]

Oh thats really bad for FL. You should move if you want cold.

[Cubanchic]

Originally Posted by Summerwhale

Oh thats really bad for FL. You should move if you want cold.

After a very hot and humid summer we welcome the few cold snaps we get, so while I don't want to live in a area that is constantly cold a change from the norm is nice.

[ischyros]

They are forecasting rain changing over to light snow here in Indiana late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A dusting to an inch is expected by only on grassy surfaces and rooftops. It will melt by midday Saturday as it temps should rise into the mid-40s.

[Cambium]

My early congrats and most likely the general outcome.

Congratulations Eastern Michigan, Eastern Ohio, Western PA, Mountains of NC, WV, VA. You will see the snow (amounts not known until tomorrow night). Maine is a wild card, they might even miss out now.

This general outcome was seen by the GFS last week (over 7 days out!) but didn't have the coastal storm at the time.

This doesn't mean there wont be scattered snow showers or flurries around even to surface but the accumulations will be where I mentioned above.

I will still do the play by play update tomm 11:30am.

Originally Posted by Cambium

The million dollar question is WHERE!?

Earlier runs had just the Mid Atlantic mountains, next few updates had just mountains in New England, next few updates had all of northern New England (not just high elevation).. ..

[nei]

Snow that far west? From a coastal storm. Another low reaching further west?