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Today it was not only cold but even worse as there was some wet snow on the ground today morning here. The snow disappeared within some hours but anyway.There were recorded some snow in other several places in eastern Estonia as well.
Right now there is typical 6c degrees and light drizzle here.
Aprils are such moody months here. Here is the first half of the month in my area>
Enjoy your snowy trough West coast looks like the ridge is coming back (positive PNA)... And the forecast update for the NAO decides to take it more. For how long is the question.
HEADLINE: Last night’s 0Z GFS op run was a strong outlier to the cold side across the CONUS when compared to the other models and ensembles, coming in 25 HDDs higher than the AM forecast over the East. Our new teleconnection super-ensemble comparison in the Winter Demandex framework shows that the GFS op was at the top of the envelop during the 6-10 day period, and remained higher than the ensembles during the 11-15 day period. This suggests a warmer 12Z run is likely during the 6-15 day period.
Last night’s 0Z GFS op came in at at 3.2 sigma in the Demandex frame work during the 6-10 day period forecast. This was the highest value of all models, including all ensemble members of the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF according to our super-ensemble teleconnection image, which is now available to premium weather package users.
Quote:
BOTTOM LINE: The GFS op was about 25 HDDs higher than the AM forecast across the East during the 6-15 day period forecast. While we expect temperatures to transition into a cooler regime across the eastern two thirds during the medium range, the fact that the GFS op was at the top of the envelope of our super ensemble Winter Demandex teleconnection diagram suggests a high probability that the 12Z run will come in less amplified, resulting in a warmer U.S. forecast during the 6-15 day period.
BOTTOM LINE: A highly active Spring pattern remains the theme heading into the month of May. We expect warmth to rebuild over the Pacific Northwest under a building warm ridge that is expected to extend up through the North Pole. Over the East, we expect a downstream response that results in changeable weather with both cool and warm periods. During highly changeable patterns, it is difficult to pin-point timing and whether the warmth will outweigh the cold, or vice versa. A similar outcome to what happened last May is possible, as we are in a similar evolving El Nino state in both the atmosphere and Pacific Ocean.
Florida sticking out Like a summer sore thumb. Current Temps.
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