NWS issued a moderate risk today. Possibility of a derecho forming.
...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS. MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.