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Thought it would be fun to try and guess. Made a map for easier visual.
A. Green - Great Lakes Storm Track. Warm and Rain to East coast
B. Red - Appalachians Storm Track. Cool rain for East coast
C. Blue - Up the coastal Plain Track. Mix event for coast, snow interior.
D. Purple - Off the coast track. Snow event for Northeast north of Philly
E. Yellow - Stays south and OTS. No precip north of Phily. Rain southward except higher elevations
POLL CLOSES THURSDAY JANUARY 1, 2015. More points for guessing now rather than closer.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SINCE THIS IS DAY 8 OF THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...THESE POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT WITH MODEL
RUN FLUCTUATIONS BEING MORE LIKELY AT THIS VERY LATE FORECAST TIME
FRAME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
325 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO COMPLEXITIES WITH THE FLOW
FAR UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL AFFECT HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM END UP INTERACTING AND ULTIMATELY HOW
LOW PRESSURE ENDS UP EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CANADA. AT
THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A WARM
STORM...SO WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE WE WAIT AND SEE HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES
UPSTREAM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
120 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN AS WE MOVE FROM
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
BEGINS TO MAKE ITS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL IN TURN RE-INTRODUCE A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THAT WILL ADVECT INCREASING WARM AND
MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
306 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014
GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
2015 DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK
INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN LIKELY THE MOST DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH AND EAST
OF PA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND A MORE MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014
FRI NIGHT/SAT...THE OP MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER LOW DEEPENING AND
MOVING WEST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO SAT. TEMPS COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW/MIXED PRECIP FRI NIGHT...BUT READINGS
WILL PROBABLY WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN SAT.
NWS NY NY increased pops with the agreement of DGEX and GFS. (nice to see Dgex into consideration, lol)
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
640 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CONVEYED BY NEARLY A 90 DEGREE PHASE SHIFT
BETWEEN CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT CONTOUR ORIENTATION. HOWEVER DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE WITH AGREEMENT ON PRECIP BETWEEN DGEX...GFS...AS WELL AS SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. JUST A MATTER OF PRECIP TYPE. THIS FORECAST HAS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...SNOW PROBABLY AT ONSET DUE TO WET BULB
COOLING AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR DAY 7
AND DAY 8 TIME FRAME...SO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VARY WITH
TIMING...PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPES.
NWS Philly has a lot of goodies. Mentions models since Fall have been bad with the 500mb pattern 4-5 days out. They mention how few models decided it wasn't going to snow tomorrow just 2-3 days before.
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014
AS FOR THE DETAILS, THE MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME ON KEYING ON THE CORRECT 500MB PATTERN MUCH MORE THAN 4 TO 5 DAYS IN ADVANCE SINCE AUTUMN. GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT BEEN SOLIDIFIED MUCH BEFORE 72 HOURS.
AS A RECENT EXAMPLE THE NON-ECMWF MODELS DID NOT LOSE THEIR SNOWIER TUESDAY SOLUTION FOR OUR CWA UNTIL THE 12Z RUN SATURDAY AND IN THE NAM`S CASE NOT UNTIL
YESTERDAY.
SO IN ONE CORNER WE HAVE THE GFS, NOGAPS AND (INFERRING)
UKMET TAKE A VERY STRONG LOW THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THERE IS A PLETHORA OF COLD AIR IN EASTERN CANADA AND HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE EASILY DONE.
IN THE OTHER CORNER WE HAVE THE ECMWF, PGFS AND CAN GGEM THAT TAKE A MUCH WEAKER LOW INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, HANG BACK ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW
AND THEN DO ANOTHER SHEARING VERSION OF OUR PRESENT SCENARIO OVER
THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE LIKE THE WEAKER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TRACK
FORECAST, THE HANGING BACK OF ENERGY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF, OPENS UP A WHOLE NEW BOWL OF UNCERTAINTY.
SO GIVEN THE DIVERGENT
SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE, WE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE LATEST WPC SOLUTION FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS, WHICH FOR RIGHT NOW PAINTS A VERY
CLIMATOLOGICAL PICTURE OF SNOW TO RAIN TO SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND
WE ARE KEEPING THE FORECAST OF A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF THE
INITIAL LOW AND COLD FRONT PCPN ON SATURDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
SHEARING LOW PCPN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE PRETTY
MUCH ALL CLUSTERED SIMILARLY TO THE OP GFS. THE CAN GEPS HAS ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF ITS MEMBERS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS AND A QUARTER
SIMILAR TO ITS OPERATIONAL AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SECONDARY LOW SUNDAY AS IT OPENS UP
THE CLOSED SW CONUS LOW MUCH FASTER THAN THE OP. THERE IS A SWATH OF DEEP PURPLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SFC PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SUN EVE, NOT EXACTLY SMOKING ON THE WATER. OPERATIONALLY SEVEN DAYS AWAY, THIS HAS BEEN MORE THE RULE THAN THE EXCEPTION THIS COLD SEASON FOR ALL OF THE MODELS.
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