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Old 01-25-2015, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,515 posts, read 75,294,816 times
Reputation: 16619

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Get the history books out. This will be another memorable storm. Understand...these maps are using 10:1 ratios. This is the latest Hi-Res NAM model.

"12z Nam-12km 84-hr snow zoomed in on Boston 30-40 inches in SE Mass using 10:1 ratios"

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/559366...3347456/photo/1




"Now NYC zoom widespread 15-25 inches using 10:1 ratio"




And this will be over 24hrs or so. We are gonna get plastered.
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Old 01-25-2015, 08:18 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,478,433 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Get the history books out. This will be another memorable storm. Understand...these maps are using 10:1 ratios. This is the latest Hi-Res NAM model.
So the NAM switched from not much snow to lots of snow?
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Old 01-25-2015, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
5,706 posts, read 3,774,375 times
Reputation: 1417
Quote:
Originally Posted by cambium View Post
get the history books out. This will be another memorable storm. Understand...these maps are using 10:1 ratios. This is the latest hi-res nam model.

"12z nam-12km 84-hr snow zoomed in on boston 30-40 inches in se mass using 10:1 ratios"

https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/559366...3347456/photo/1




"now nyc zoom widespread 15-25 inches using 10:1 ratio"




and this will be over 24hrs or so. We are gonna get plastered.
30-40in wtf!!!
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Old 01-25-2015, 08:26 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,515 posts, read 75,294,816 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
So the NAM switched from not much snow to lots of snow?
BINGO. Nice catch! A drastic shift like that towards consensus pretty much means this is big.

And NWS NY ignored that NAM run showing not much.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW TRACK AND ITS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PCPN HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED
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Old 01-25-2015, 08:51 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,478,433 times
Reputation: 15184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
BINGO. Nice catch! A drastic shift like that towards consensus pretty much means this is big.

And NWS NY ignored that NAM run showing not much.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW TRACK AND ITS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PCPN HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED
I'd guess each NWS office placed more weight on different models, now that they agree more, there should be less weird border discrepancies?
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Old 01-25-2015, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Detroit
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This is gonna be historic. I hope everyone knows what is coming. Stay safe all.
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Old 01-25-2015, 09:39 AM
 
29,522 posts, read 19,616,477 times
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I hate you Northeast coasters right now lol....

Henry Margusity

Blizzard to Hit New York City and New England - AccuWeather.com


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Old 01-25-2015, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Northville, MI
11,879 posts, read 14,206,770 times
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Coastal New england will see the worst conditions.

Happy shoveling Cambium. Please show me pics.
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Old 01-25-2015, 09:53 AM
 
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Last night's Euro run wallops NYC and points north

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Old 01-25-2015, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,515 posts, read 75,294,816 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
I'd guess each NWS office placed more weight on different models, now that they agree more, there should be less weird border discrepancies?
Sometimes (like with this one) they communicate with each other to "blend" the borders better but it's always tough and there might always be a different look. But sometimes even hours before models wont fully agree. Euro might show 2" qpf while GFS shows 1.5" which would make a 6" snow difference.

I wanna get technical with some stuff but I need to preserve my mind energy for during the storm. LOL maybe someone else can post something.

I got a Blizzard Watch which might get upgraded to a Warning including for NYC, Long Island, Southern CT and Boston

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