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Nice to see other areas involved with same storm. This will be fun.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Snow on Monday (assuming it happens) is forecast to be accompanied by a high of 13°F. Cold for heavy snow.
Yeah KBOX did very well with that discussion its getting rave reviews non twitter. lol. Notice they are scared to go with the Operation models and that forecaster is using the "ensembles" instead. lol I don't blame him.
Yeah, whats up with that??? Not something I see here either. Teens and decent amount of precip? Fluff Stuff again.
Yeah, whats up with that??? Not something I see here either. Teens and decent amount of precip? Fluff Stuff again.
Little precip = a lot of snow.
That combination happens more in upstate NY, with very fluffy snow. Usually here ocean influence, means any source of moisture will be milder. Not something that usually happens from a nor'easter.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW FORECAST HAS A TOTAL OF GENERALLY 6-12
INCHES IN THIS TIME FRAME...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...LOWEST ACROSS LONG ISLAND. .
BECAUSE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HELD OFF ON THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
TWO...THIS EVENT IS STILL BEYOND THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME THAT IS
TYPICAL OF A WATCH. THE FORECASTS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING HAVE
EXHIBITED WIDE VARIANCE IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES. THIS HAS BEEN CONVEYED IN THE NAM...CMC
BETWEEN THE LAST TWO RUNS AND THE ECMWF 12Z COMPARED TO 12Z
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IF FOR EXAMPLE A
FURTHER NORTHWARD TREND IS MADE WITH THE MODELS RUNS TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND PARALLEL NAM HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A MORE NORTHWARD TREND THAT
POSES A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOME COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST SO THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX ONE.
THREE...INGREDIENTS FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE YET TO COME TOGETHER FROM
WESTERN CANADA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO . THESE WILL COMBINE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE BETTER SAMPLING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL YIELD LESS VARIANCE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
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