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Now.. about the 3rd storm Wed next week... models been trending colder but I mentioned rain/ice would be involved as of right now..
Guess what GFS just does... Colder... Snowier.
Here's the snowfall total map for the 3rd snowstorm. All you need to realize is that it's now showing its colder and more off the coast with the storm rather than the amounts shown,.
Everyone keeping up? lol
This isn't a blog. Prefer more interaction with everyone.
I want that map to verify. We haven't had a good 6" snowstorm for 5 years.
The NWS had a long discussion of the possibilities for anything wintery next week. Nothing's looked good within five days yet (the only thing looking at all decent was the January 14 ice). Thus, I won't put too much hope into it unless it's still looking decent 48 hours out. I will say that the NWS put a lot of detail into precip types considering how far out it is, though.
Spoiler
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NC FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY... AND CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS INCREASING. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID NORTHERN STREAM AIR IN PLACE AND THE INJECTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CULMINATING IN PHASING IS A TYPICAL RECIPE FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THIS REGION... AND THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
SYNOPTIC SETUP: NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE DESERT SW INTO THE SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO MON NIGHT INTO TUE... AND THIS RESULTANT FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH THEN KICKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MISS VALLEY AND EASTERN STATES THROUGH WED. AT THE SURFACE... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST... WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX OR LA COAST ON TUE. THIS LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SW GA TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING (THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THIS)... THEN THIS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW JUST OFF NC OR VA WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE REARWARD LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH UP THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS UP TOWARD THE MARITIMES WED... AS STRONG VORTICITY CENTERS ROUND THE MEAN TROUGH BASE AND TRACKS ENE THROUGH NC.
PRECIP PATTERN: BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION... THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE POPS INTO THE SRN CWA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT... WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND SW BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND BRING IN SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH LATE MON NIGHT. DEEP AND STRONG LIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TUE/TUE NIGHT... WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST QPF ON TUE... WHEREAS THE ECWMF FOCUSES ITS GREATEST AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT. IN EITHER CASE... THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF FORCING ANTICIPATED... INCLUDING VIGOROUS MOIST UPGLIDE / STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE / HEIGHT FALLS... SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT... AND THESE WILL NO DOUBT NEED TO GO UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR SOME TIME FRAME IN LATER FORECASTS. TOUGH CALL ON A DEPARTURE OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TO LINGER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WED... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TOWARD DRY CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES: USING A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT FOR A DAY-5 FORECAST WITH SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING... EXPECT PRECIP TO START AS A MOSTLY VERY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE IN THE SOUTH... AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. AS RATES INCREASE TUE WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE IN THE 925-800 MB LAYER... PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION DURING THE DAY TO MOSTLY RAIN IN THE SE WITH A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS EXCEPT LINGERING MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. BY NIGHTFALL... WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER WITH MOSTLY RAIN ELSEWHERE... ALTHOUGH IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS CONTINUES TO EDGE SOUTHWARD... THEN MORE OF THE CWA WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP LINGERING WELL INTO TUE NIGHT. THICKNESSES INDICATE A RETURN BACK TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS WED WITH THE COLDER AIR RUSHING BACK IN... HOWEVER WE SHOULD START DRYING OUT ALOFT BY THIS TIME... YIELDING MORE OF A TREND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT GIVEN THAT TUE/WED IS DAY 5/6 OF THE FORECAST WITH A LOT OF MODEL RUNS TO VIEW AND STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY AMONGST THE SOLUTIONS... WILL KEEP IT BROAD-SCALE AND TREND TO JUST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WED BEFORE ENDING. IT`S FAR TOO EARLY TO GET INTO PARTICULARS OF AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL ACCRUAL/ACCUMULATION... GIVEN THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE AT THIS FAR RANGE. STAY TUNED.
TEMPS: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND A LOWER-THAN-USUAL DIURNAL RANGE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP. LOWS 22-27 MON NIGHT... HIGHS 34-50 (NW-SE) TUE (AND CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST WITH THESE READINGS AS THEY COULD EASILY END UP A CATEGORY LOWER OR MORE)... LOWS 28-40 TUE NIGHT... AND HIGHS 39-49 WED.
FOR WED NIGHT/THU: CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE COLD MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDS OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH UNSETTLED CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT AND LIKELY NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS TAKES A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS VA/NC THU AND SQUEEZES OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE PROCESS (AND THIS WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW IF THE GFS IS CORRECT)... WHEREAS THE ECMWF MERELY SHOWS A WEAK AND DRY CLIPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. -GIH
THE PINS KEEP FALLING… THROWING STRIKES IN CYCLONE ALLEY
February 12, 2015
By: Nate Iannuccillo
If you were to think of the northeastern US as a bowling alley and mid-latitude cyclones as the bowling balls, then we’re seeing one heck of a game this winter, because the storms keep hitting their mark -
Have we not had enough snow already, no? Just saying, it's been snowing nonstop for like three weeks, omfg when the **** is this **** gonna end?! ****ing ****, what the ****, can't we have like a single day that's above 32?! What the **** was the point moving here from Moscow if it's going to be just as ****ing cold? **** this snow **** for real. My **** is frozen solid, this is enough. Now I know why everyone is moving to ****ing Florida. Freezing my **** off going to class everyday smh
Second winter in a row that this **** has been going on, they need a bit less global warming in LA, and a bit more global warming up here. Is this always like this, or am I just picturing things?
Listen.... I seen Wind Gusts go Bust, but that's just with an ordinary situation...
You don't have to understand these images except the last one.
Those are wind gusts Sunday.
Do you guys know the power and the energy that happens when a storm dives SouthEast, then all of a sudden stops, and makes a turn Northeast like that????????????????????????? Similar to Sandy how it was moving Northeast then all of a sudden gets sucked NorthWest. The energy that goes into that is insane.
This storm blowing up into a sub 980mb low is another aspect. The storm is bombing out.
This will be a memorable storm for New England. Couple this with the temps in the teens & 20s AND SNOW and you got the memory waiting to happen. Eastern New England going to get hit with this.
That "prolonged period" turned out to be a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Wrecked snow for purposes of cross-country skiing.
We need more replies like this to look back on and see what verified! That was from Feb 4th which was 4 days before the event. After that day models had shifted north which meant the Northern Mid Atlantic was out of the equation.
Eastern MA went over 55 hours with snow I believe. I had 5 days of clouds and 3 days of on and off Ice and Snow. No rain. NYC was on the bottom edge of the long duration event not getting much with on and off rain, ice, snow only mounting to less than 1/2".
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