March 2015 Snow/Ice Storms Eastern U.S (cyclone, America, map)

[Cambium]

March 14-15, 2015 Storm Update:::

There's been PLENTY of snow in March and even April and with the pattern we're in, why not?

ALL models show a storm next weekend.

GFS 6 runs in a row with snow but last couple runs change it to rain South of MA.

Euro continues with JUST rain south of MA

This would be for next weekend.

Heres what the Canadian00z says for Saturday night Sub 1000 low off coast

Huge area from Southern NY into Eastern MA over half foot of new snow.

There's a lot of moisture with this one as of right now +/- 1 inch

[nei]

Maybe a high temperature map could be useful. I'm thinking mid-March there's a good chance of rain mixing in*. Where's the furthest north the rain/snow line would be? Timing of storm? Would it be done Sunday morning? Or more later Sunday?

*oh, oops you said that, though only for south of Massachusetts.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

Maybe a high temperature map could be useful. I'm thinking mid-March there's a good chance of rain mixing in*. Where's the furthest north the rain/snow line would be? Timing of storm? Would it be done Sunday morning? Or more later Sunday?

*oh, oops you said that, though only for south of Massachusetts.

Yeah north of MA it will be all snow. Details, Details! Right now lets see if the storm still showing up which it is.

As we move on in time we'll see the temp and timing of it. A lot of times the storm is faster than whats being shown. I'm thinking should be done Sunday afternoon

Here are the temps from the Canadian during the storm which is off the coast at this time Sunday 1am.. Freezing line down to CT coast. 850mb as well. So it's definitely cold enough per GFS and Canadian north of NYC. Euro has 35-41F south of MA

Notice its in the 50s East of the LP. Were the storm tracks is going to be key as usual.

[Cambium]

GFS doesn't wanna stop. Now 7 runs in a row with snow. Last few changes to rain for most.

[snj90]

^ Cool! I had a feeling we'd still have more accumulating snow this season: although, of course, it's very unlikely the one we just had will be surpassed.

[nei]

If that storm happens the way the GFS shows, we may not see bare ground till April.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

If that storm happens the way the GFS shows, we may not see bare ground till April.

Yup, that would be unprecedented and historic for here. We've gotten March & April snowstorms but never had a deep lasting snowpack as it is now let alone to April.

Starting the get into the discussion range. Uh oh.

NWS NY

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS AND NORTH OF THE
REGION WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
GRADUALLY FALLING FROM SEASONABLE ON WED TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND RIDGING SOUTH OF BERMUDA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO WEEKEND. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXITS ON STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM BLOCKING...WHICH MANIFESTS IN DIFFERENCES IN PROGRESSION
OF A LATE WEEK GULF LOW PRESSURE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE WEEKEND.
IF BLOCKING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED A LONGER DURATION AND MORE
WINTRY PRECIP EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED IN THE GFS...WHILE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
A QUICKER AND WARMER PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING 8 DAYS AWAY HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW.

[Cambium]

Discussion Tid Bits for Weekend Storm which is now being shown for Friday night/Saturday for here.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015


FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
LOTS OF SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH POSITION OF SFC HIGH AND
TIMING/TRACK OF SFC WAVE. GFS CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ECMWF AND
SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING THROUGH. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND HOW
QUICKLY IT DEPARTS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN PTYPE. GFS HAS SUPPORT
OF UKMET AND SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS SO TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW/MIXED PRECIP TO
RAIN EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INHERENTLY LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
FURTHER CHANGES ARE LIKELY.

------------------

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015

UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING REGARDING TIMING OF WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION. THE ORIGINS OF THIS SYSTEM BEGIN WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS... AN UPPER RIDGE
EXISTS IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... HELPING TO PULL THE SURFACE
LOW MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ECMWF KICKS THIS
SURFACE LOW OUT MORE QUICKLY... BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER...
DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND IT AND BRINGING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THE ECMWF MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST AND
THE GFS POTENTIALLY TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW (AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS). SO FOR NOW WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW... BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A CHANGE TO
RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.

[Cambium]

Just to update on the weekend storm... I didn't follow the models today so not sure the trend. Maybe someone can post some discussion or blog or something on it. Quickly checked looks like GFS is trending warmer towards the Euro and so its rain. But something new popped up for mid week too. Rain.

Unless snowstorm is being shown this thread will slowly fade away.

[Cambium]

Interesting. Lots of IFS still 6 days out but storm still happening. NWS Philly mentions the what ifs.

NWS Mount Holly

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015

A SURFACE HIGH WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE IN THE REGION
THURSDAY, BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER, BEFORE WE TURN OUR FOCUS TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE AFFECTING US NEXT WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY.

IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST FASTER THAN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ARRIVES, WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY, THEN THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW, BUT THAT IS
FAR FROM UNCERTAIN) AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT.

ONCE THE WARM
FRONT ARRIVES, SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GFS
IS ALSO SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING PAST THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL, THINK
THAT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO LIMIT WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL
AT THE END OF THIS EVENT