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Yup Euro confirms, that August will be a disaster here Just hoping that the pattern can flip easily since the confidence level is low
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Confidence with this set is lower than usual for much of North America due to a lack of strong signals and a relatively fast west to east steering flow. However, confidence is higher along the West Coast of Canada, U.S. Rockies, Gulf of Mexico and into the tropical Atlantic.
So George, I told you in several posts that the warm blob that gave you the two winters you loved would also ruin your summers. You totally pooh poohed me and said summer is not affected by the warm blob. You were wrong, and you are completely wrong. The same high pressure over the PNW is giving you that trough over you all summer. Look at the summer they are having in the PNW.
When will you finally come around to wish for a mild winter, so that you can get the summer you want? You can't have both.
And I was reading a meteo paper that claimed 70% of mild winters in the eastern US are caused by the PNA being negative. In other words, the vast majority of our mild winters come when the PNW is cold with a cold PDO.
From seeing his tweets on here, Ventrice really strikes me as another Joe Bastardi wannabe. He loves to exaggerate cold, and minimize warmth. How cold is that blue over the Mid-Atlantic really going to be?
So George, I told you in several posts that the warm blob that gave you the two winters you loved would also ruin your summers. You totally pooh poohed me and said summer is not affected by the warm blob. You were wrong, and you are completely wrong. The same high pressure over the PNW is giving you that trough over you all summer. Look at the summer they are having in the PNW.
When will you finally come around to wish for a mild winter, so that you can get the summer you want? You can't have both.
So what about July 2005? Look at all that warmer than average water in the North Pacific?
No El Nino that summer, and no rain either. It was quite warm. 35 days above 90F
Quote:
And I was reading a meteo paper that claimed 70% of mild winters in the eastern US are caused by the PNA being negative. In other words, the vast majority of our mild winters come when the PNW is cold with a cold PDO.
Well we did have an above average April/May this Spring, then it got wet. Wet soils suppresses heat. All that rain here and in Texas stifled the development of a Central US ridge this summer.
Last week Ventrice tweeted out that this is a classic ENSO pattern. That's El Nino Southern Oscillation. Didn't say much about the warm blob being the culprit.
New Steve D discussion. Link was provided with previous post.
Tropical Pacific has the answers as well.
Quote:
Teleconnections can tell you a lot about the atmospheric pattern we are in. In some cases, these teleconnection charts can point to old weather patterns. However, when using these charts it is best not to match years to similar chart but instead match drivers that cause these similar charts. This morning I will do just that.
The last time I saw the signal above in the Summer; positive PNA, negative NAO, negative AO, negative WPO, and negative EPO was in the following summers of 2009, 2010, and 2013. In all of these weather patterns, this weather pattern matches 2009 the best due to the El Nino influence which was in place. So why is this important?
It’s all about the convection! Where are the thunderstorms developing in the Tropical Pacific, which happens to be around the date line. You see, all of these teleconnections from all those years feature a focus of convection between 170E and 160W, and specifically around around longitude 180 degrees.
The difference though is what is behind the drivers and this is important to understand. This year we are clearly under the influence of an El Nino pattern thus we are set up with a split pattern with an enhanced Sub Tropical jet stream. The difference from 2009 is this El Nino is now on track to be stronger than the 2009/10 version.
Note that in the AMJ period, the 2009/10 El Nino was as 0.2C above normal while this one is at 0.9C and likely to exceed 1.0C in the next official tri-monthly measurement. So we must take this into consideration when looking at the long range pattern.
The ENSO connection has more influence with the negative WPO/EPO and positive PNA set up. The strongly negative WPO and variable EPO set up has my attention as these teleconnections strongly point to a sustained convective environment around the date line. As such, this El Nino appears allow lower 500 MB heights to evolve around the date line and higher up in latitude around the Aleutian Islands or western Gulf of Alaska. This influence, thus far, has forced a ridge in western North America and a trough in eastern North America.
The negative AO/NAO couplet is not as strongly influenced by El Nino but there are some connections.
I looked back at solar influence though and wouldn’t you know it, all years with a sustained negative AO/NAO in the Summer also had declining solar output. See the Summer of 2009/10, very impressive evolution with decline of sun spots. We are not there yet for this year, but on the path towards a similar environment.
So now we see what is driving these teleconnections. The next step is to observe the influence of these factors on the early Fall pattern, specifically the September pattern. I have thoughts on that evolution which I will share on Thursday.
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Just hoping that the pattern can flip easily since the confidence level is low
