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Old 07-30-2015, 06:18 AM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
5,706 posts, read 3,763,232 times
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The rain missed us again yesterday

Here's a picture of the storm as it slides to the north.
Attached Thumbnails
Summer 2015 Thread - Northern Hemisphere-image.jpg  
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Old 07-30-2015, 06:33 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,405 posts, read 74,915,183 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
New Steve D discussion.

"So now we see what is driving these teleconnections. The next step is to observe the influence of these factors on the early Fall pattern, specifically the September pattern. I have thoughts on that evolution which I will share on Thursday. "
I ignore the "general" statements like few periods of above normal", ect.. There's always a period of above/below normal. I mostly grab info and learn other stuff being said... With that said... Here's his thoughts on August & September..

Steve D...

Quote:
As promised, this morning we will discuss the pattern for August and September. One of the driving factors and most significant wild cards is how the SSTA in the Pacific in regard to El Nino will evolve. Are we really headed towards a Super El Nino? Well, as I discussed and showed yesterday, the date and frankly the latest models would suggest no. Still, this is a factor we have to keep an eye on.

The other factor is of course the quiet sun and the steady increase in stratospheric temperatures, especially at the lower layers. Remember, the warmer the stratosphere, the more contracted the 500 MB layer becomes and thus the more enhanced troughs and high latitude blocking.

Given these factors, August and September are likely to be rather volatile months. I can’t rule out a few periods of above normal temperatures, but I think the next 60 days will be remembered for the increasing strength of Polar air masses invading the region. For one, the warm northern Pacific strongly points towards a trough around the Aleutian Islands, not the eastern Gulf of Alaska as some suggest. This factor would strongly point to a ridge in the West which we have observed slowly build, and a trough in the East which has been slowly become more and more established.

August will feature bouts of surprising cool weather, especially by the middle of the month with an MJO state around phase 7/8. The month will also feature an increase threat for showers and thunderstorms transitioning to heavy rain threats by the end of the month.

September may be a rather cool month if El Nino does actually begin to peak if my thoughts on this El Nino are correct. Look for a major cold front around September 10-14 for the major “push” of a Fall pattern. I suspect the second half of September will be cooler and also far more active as the Sub Tropical jet stream flexes some muscles. Do not be surprised to find an increase in tropical activity off the Southeast coast as well which likely lead to some interesting interactions for the region. I am not calling for a hurricane landfall, but moisture from these tropical lows will be a factor in the forecasts.

All in all, August and September will begin the step down towards a more amplified Polar jet stream but the Sub Tropical jet stream will have everyone’s attention as El Nino begins to peak. Keep an eye out for tropical trouble around the Bahamas while the Cape Verde season is handicapped by shear and dry air from the Sahara.
Oh, and take note what a warming stratosphere does. It contracts the 500mb level and is able to create troughs and a cooler surface.
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Old 07-30-2015, 06:36 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
4,439 posts, read 5,510,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
You're about on the northern edge there where it's so tough to get a push that far south especially in Summers. Rest assure.. can you believe September is little over 1 month away? The only thing is.. If that Sub tropical jet does indeed become very active I don't think that helps get that "push" of cold Canadian air down there. It will help keep daytime temps down with clouds and rain a lot but The Polar Jet stream and High Pressure will meet resistance and not push further south. The sub jet waves and moves around so lets hope for good timing.
What meant was that I don't want the heat to push north when I go to Michigan / Ontario / Syracuse after the 19th. I want 70's, and I shouldn't have to climb Mt Marcy to get them...lol.
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Old 07-30-2015, 06:42 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
4,439 posts, read 5,510,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I ignore the "general" statements like few periods of above normal", ect.. There's always a period of above/below normal. I mostly grab info and learn other stuff being said... With that said... Here's his thoughts on August & September..

Steve D...



Oh, and take note what a warming stratosphere does. It contracts the 500mb level and is able to create troughs and a cooler surface.
Yeah, that's what I need to hear.

Imagine if a strong cold front comes though central New York just before the 28th, so I can enjoy a 70-degree day at the New York State Fair.

The idea of a wet September down here is balm to the soul too - what I'd give for days of clouds and lots and lots of rain. Sun, sun, go away!
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Old 07-30-2015, 07:09 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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anyway forecast discussion. Cold front coming, should be interesting. and will lower the humidity

Strong upper level low will continue to spin across Hudson Bay.
Associated shortwave will move through the flow pushing a cold
front across the eastern Great Lakes into New England late this
afternoon. This front will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms for western mass and Connecticut. Father east appears
the chance for a wetting rain seems to be lower as forcing along the
front weakens. 00z guidance also shows a wave moving up from the middle-
Atlantic coast which could slow down the passage front across the
cape and islands tonight. Regardless appears that the front will move
into western mass around 18-21z and offshore by 06z.

Details:

Ahead of the passage of the front...southwesterly flow will pull in
moisture today bringing dewpoints into the low 70s. Cloud cover will
also be on the increase within the warm air advection pattern. With this amount of
moisture...could see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
break out across the region between 15-21z. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with this activity.

As the front approaches the region...believe more of a convective
line will develop across the Hudson Valley and move into western
mass. Strong to possible severe thunderstorms are possible as the
system approaches southern New England. Poor middle level lapse rates...5 c/km and cloud
cover will limit instability...

As the front passes...the potential for strong to severe storms
drops off east of the Worcester Hills. This is due to the loss of
instability from sunset as well as lack of better forcing. Still
cant rule out thunderstorms during the overnight hours due to
elevated instability.

Otherwise temperatures will be warm once again today. However not as
warm as yesterday as 925mb temperatures are cooler. So temperatures will
generally be in the upper 80s with a few spot 90s. Best location to
see 90+ will be across the Merrimack valley...which may see more sun
versus the rest of the area.

Friday...

Front will be offshore by Friday morning leading to a decent day.
Although temperatures will be warm...humidity will be lower than the
previous days. Abundant sunshine will lead to mixing so winds could
get a tad gusty in the afternoon.


I think they meant decent instead of descent
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Old 07-30-2015, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
16,191 posts, read 11,335,745 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Incredibly warm and humid morning.

Temp 77
dewpoint 73

Wish i had sandy soil like Florida.
I can guarantee it feels just as muggy and miserable here.


Fair
82°F
28°C
Humidity 82%
Wind Speed W 6 mph
Barometer 30.04 in (1017.4 mb)
Dewpoint 76°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 89°F (32°C)
Last update 30 Jul 8:53 am EDT
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Old 07-30-2015, 08:00 AM
 
29,449 posts, read 19,542,454 times
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https://twitter.com/barrybutler9/sta...08368077078528

Not bad today




PNW hot.... Again

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Old 07-30-2015, 08:38 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
46,009 posts, read 53,318,126 times
Reputation: 15179
almost as bad as DC



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Old 07-30-2015, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Northern Ireland and temporarily England
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What about the tropical storm?
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Old 07-30-2015, 09:21 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,405 posts, read 74,915,183 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
anyway forecast discussion. Cold front coming, should be interesting. and will lower the humidity

Strong upper level low will continue to spin across Hudson Bay.
Associated shortwave will move through the flow pushing a cold
front across the eastern Great Lakes into New England late this
afternoon. This front will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms for western mass and Connecticut.

Details:

Ahead of the passage of the front...southwesterly flow will pull in
moisture today bringing dewpoints into the low 70s.
There it is. The 984mb Hudson Bay storm now. Beautiful looking storm. Wow. Dragging the cold front with it as it spins. But I noticed this cold front is not really a cold front. Temps will still be warm/hot here in the mid-upper 80s. Looking behind the front it's not really interesting.



In action.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif

Come on Vortex and Polar Jet, DIG DOWN next time instead of staying in Canada.

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