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So everything seems to be accurate! But what can we expect towards for the Spring and even into the Summer? Well, this is the easy part. I just looked at the Spring and Summer of 1978. The hard part was doing the research….
During the year 1978 from March to July, each month saw below average temperatures. But do I buy this? Yes, I actually do. Why though? Last year we had a relatively cool Summer, I think a huge part of this was the ice pack on the Great Lakes. But why does this matter to our weather, well cold fronts will be going over colder water, warm fronts that come from that way will struggle to make it here. This year, the ice pack is even larger.
How below average was the 1978 Spring and Summer? Each month other than July was 2 degrees or more cooler, some were close to 4 degrees cooler!
How about precip? April, June and July of 1978 were VERY dry compared to normal but May and August were just above normal! March was right around where it should be.
Do I buy this? Yeah, I do. The entire 6 month spread ended up being pretty normal with rainfall totals, I don’t see any reason why this certainly isn’t possible. I don’t see any reasoning why we will be well below or above when it comes to precip. Around normal makes the most sense.
So in conclusion: I think we will have a slow start to spring, especially with rainfall. Temperatures will overall be below average. By the end of Spring and beginning of summer, temps should make it closer to normal but still below average. We will have a few stretches of warmer weather with humidity, but nothing that will last weeks like we are use too here in CT. I truly believe we will see another relatively cool Spring and Summer with average rainfall.
So in conclusion: I think we will have a slow start to spring, especially with rainfall. Temperatures will overall be below average. By the end of Spring and beginning of summer, temps should make it closer to normal but still below average. We will have a few stretches of warmer weather with humidity, but nothing that will last weeks like we are use too here in CT. I truly believe we will see another relatively cool Spring and Summer with average rainfall.
It will be interesting to see if the northeast/midwest disparity continues into the summer months.
well since this is a summer thread I guess I will post my thoughts on summer. there is this thing called the TNI (trans-nino index) that has gone positive. the first time it has been positive since summer 2012 which as we all know was a very hot summer ( second hottest july on record first being 2011 and new all time record high of 105). there are also forecasters calling for a strong el nino to dominate the summer. Im not sure exactly about what that means for the east coast summer ( I think it means about average temps with above normal precip?). also the cooler Atlantic ocean and cold great lakes overall might prevent big heat making it up north. also a positive tni enhances tornado activity and has a link apparently to large outbreaks and above average years and many forecasters are calling for an April 2011 repeat in terms of tornadic activity. overall I think this summer for the south will be warmer than normal a little and about average for the northeast. who knows what summer will bring hopefully not anything like we saw in 2013 and 2014. im hoping for a summer about 2 degrees above average and 1 inch above normal precip
It's got up to 12-13°C a few times now, I played basketball outside all day in shorts and a T-shirt... in March. I consider it summer weather as early June can often have highs in that range.
It's got up to 12-13°C a few times now, I played basketball outside all day in shorts and a T-shirt... in March. I consider it summer weather as early June can often have highs in that range.
Hopefully the West Atlantic Ridge can save us from this crappy pattern, assuming it doesn't change before summer gets here. I want to BAKE.
I do too. Now I hope the Jamstec is way wrong here for the summer.
Only hope I have is that this was the early February run. Hopefully the pattern will evolve to a more favorable for Central and Eastern heat this summer. My gut is telling me that there will be heat in the Central US. For it to get so hot in the Central Plains yesterday, so early means that there is at least the potential for a big hot air dome positioned right over the Central US
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