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Just thought of something... with the heat build up in the Northeast lately I wonder if Lake Ontario and Erie warmed up some. Dare I say extra enhanced Lake effect snows again?
these recurving typhoons right now (Aug 21) could have a pattern impact with the U.S for the start of Fall. Typically a 6-11 day response time.
These would drive a deep trough into the Eastern United States & you end up with a highly amplified Polar jet stream
The Euro shows this... , all the other models have a more zonal look over the United States with a deep trough southeast of the Aleutians and off the West coast of the United States. There in lies the difference in the models.
The EURO has a far deeper trough over the Aleutian Islands, not southeast of the Islands. The result is a powerful ridge over Alaska and the West coast, trough in East.
So will it be zonal or trough for start of September?
Thinking of starting a thread for all the early snow and cold happening like I did couple yrs ago. Exciting to see and nice to have in one thread to look back on. Kinda gets lost in these seasonal threads unless you do a specific search..
NWS Chicago. Soon... Very soon.. It's going to be amazing watching this stuff if this pattern continues. Early frosts, freezes, snows. Farmers beware in plains and Mid West
Hot summer will continue into Fall. No end in sight
From Paulie P's blog. Much more text with the blog if you have access to it.. Just posting some East stuff.
" The biggest update we made was to take temperatures up in the eastern United States. September was also adjusted somewhat, but November left alone. This increased and expanded the above-normal departures. In addition, we slightly warmed north and east of the cool area on the map. We may not be warm enough in the lower Mississippi Valley. This area is expected to turn around from the reason heat due to increase moisture in late September and October.
When compared to last year, we expected the biggest rise in temperatures across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. If you remember last year, late October to November turned cold with snow (snow extending into the Carolinas). We do not expect this type of extreme for this region.
The Northeast and eastern Great Lakes can wind up drier than normal this fall, but temperatures will run higher early then fall back to average near normal. In fact, back toward the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, frost can occur slightly earlier than normal."
Thinking of starting a thread for all the early snow and cold happening like I did couple yrs ago. Exciting to see and nice to have in one thread to look back on. Kinda gets lost in these seasonal threads unless you do a specific search..
Exciting? lol! Not to me. It was 97 in Denver yesterday... let's keep that heat as long as possible
Although with a strong El Nino, we have a much higher probability of a very heavy October snow. Maybe El Nino caused our 6" Mother's Day snow this year?
Hot summer will continue into Fall. No end in sight
From Paulie P's blog. Much more text with the blog if you have access to it.. Just posting some East stuff.
" The biggest update we made was to take temperatures up in the eastern United States. September was also adjusted somewhat, but November left alone. This increased and expanded the above-normal departures. In addition, we slightly warmed north and east of the cool area on the map. We may not be warm enough in the lower Mississippi Valley. This area is expected to turn around from the reason heat due to increase moisture in late September and October.
When compared to last year, we expected the biggest rise in temperatures across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. If you remember last year, late October to November turned cold with snow (snow extending into the Carolinas). We do not expect this type of extreme for this region.
The Northeast and eastern Great Lakes can wind up drier than normal this fall, but temperatures will run higher early then fall back to average near normal. In fact, back toward the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, frost can occur slightly earlier than normal."
Major bummer. Hopefully we'll get all the above-average departures out of the way before winter.
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this year?
