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Old 10-16-2015, 05:22 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Kinda shocked me as well. Kinda why I brought up Canada. If there was unfrozen ocean north of us these cold air masses wouldnt have such an easy time going south. They would moderate greatly. So bless Canada for being there. Lol
How much colder is Quebec forecast to get than northern New England? I wouldn't be surprised if the difference is small and the coldest 850 hPa temperatures nearly on New England; polar vortex like
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Old 10-16-2015, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Well here we are...

**BIG SCORE For the American Model GFS**

Without me quoting each post of mine tracking it..

10+ days out for tomorrows date. GFS left. Euro Right. GFS was incredibly consistent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Anyone want to keep track??!

Big difference in the Northeast US for temps on Saturday the 17th! GFS digs the colder trough where the 522DAM line is at the MA/CT border meanwhile Euro Ensembles says the 522 is still way north in Canada.

Lets come back to this post next week!

Here's from a week+ out from the GFS. It really was relentless on this cold blast and deep to boot.


Last edited by Cambium; 10-16-2015 at 05:31 PM..
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Old 10-16-2015, 05:27 PM
 
Location: New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
That's why there's a watch/warning. They only issue it where things ARE growing. Fall crops in jeopardy. They don't like 30s
I know, it's just very early.
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Old 10-16-2015, 05:44 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
How much colder is Quebec forecast to get than northern New England? I wouldn't be surprised if the difference is small and the coldest 850 hPa temperatures nearly on New England; polar vortex like
Actually Quebec will have colder H85 temps than New England.

Hi-Res NAM for Sunday morning surface temps.. Looks like 20s and even some teens around there.




850mb temps Sunday morning. Amazing to see the depth of this considering how hard it was for the Polar Jet to dive down all this time.



Here's the 850mb temp anomalies this weekend



There was no more cold shots in sight till November but the Euro12z today said there's one next week. I don't believe it yet.
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Old 10-16-2015, 06:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Current metars. Saw some blues on the radar so checked the metars. Those locations are reporting light snow. Freezing fog on the Rock

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Old 10-16-2015, 08:11 PM
 
Location: New York
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Westhampton, NY....multiple water spouts and a twenty degree temperature spike in what was probably less than an hour, both events occurring this morning. That place is like Mars compared to the rest of the island.
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Old 10-16-2015, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
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First frost of the season happened tonight, a little later than normal. It was 31 degrees and falling as of 10 pm. Clear skies and only light wind means it will keep getting lower, maybe mid-twenties.
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Old 10-16-2015, 10:37 PM
 
Location: Finland
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Odd setup tonight:

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Old 10-16-2015, 10:56 PM
 
Location: NYC metro area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
see sticky how to get weather data. Good details in there. Use 36° as criteria for frost. Who is your local WFO?

Im on phone enjoying the outside air so Im limited to helping
OK thanks for the sticky rec. My local WFO is Pueblo, Colorado: NWS Pueblo, CO -- Station Climate Plots and Tables
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Old 10-17-2015, 04:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Updated & Upgraded. 20 States now have a Freeze Warning in them. Frost down to North Alabama & Mississppi.

And 2-4" snow to fall in northern Maine



Forecast lows Sunday morning





Current Surface Map



Intellicast - Local Weather Forecast, Reports and Maps

Current Advisories and Warnings - AerisWeather

WPC North American Surface Analyses

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/SE_mint_Day2.png
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