Autumn/Fall 2015 Thread (Northern Hemisphere, Sep-Nov) (snow, warm, temperatures, rainfall)

[snj90]

Very nice, cold morning. Really feeling and looking like Thanksgiving weather.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by snj90

Very nice, cold morning. Really feeling and looking like Thanksgiving weather.

Rain on the way. Coastal storm. Stormy pattern in session now. I just need them to go inside the benchmark area with cold around! None this time around.

NW S NY says the NAM model brings the storm over NYC but they are ignoring it.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

ALL NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE H5 PATTERN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE NAM HOLDS ON TO A CUTOFF
LOW ALOFT WHEREAS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER
TROUGH. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE NAM`S SFC LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE DISCOUNTED.

REMAINING GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PASSES S AND E OF LONG
ISLAND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK. GFS IS THE FURTHEST OFFSHORE...PASSING OUTSIDE THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK...THE EURO PASSING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND THE GEFS
MEAN IS BETWEEN THE TWO SOLNS. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW REMAIN PRIMARILY S AND E
OF THE AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO RAIN HOWEVER POTENTIALLY NOT AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

[Cambium]

NWS Rain total forecast through Wednesday 7pm.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/MA_QPF.png

[nei]

Cold morning, but forecast to have a nice warm-up to almost 60°F. Could see thick frost everywhere. Haven't had a freezing morning in a week, but it's that time of year it should happen every morning. If the first freezes here in the second week of November, our foliage season would last longer.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by AJ1013

I can't even tell from that picture whether the front clears my area.

Probably dissipates and stalls over Gulf and Florida. Would have to see more frames and other maps. But thats way too far south for the Jet stream IMO. Not yet in this pattern we have this year

[tommyFL]

Looks like we'll drop into the 50s for the first time next weekend...about a month later than usual. Better late than never, I suppose.

[Infamous92]

Already rising through the 50's after being in the 30's less than two hours ago.

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Ethereal

Amazing how cold it gets in the central-southern US, in contrast to other places in its latitude (namely the west coast). That region needs some big lake (like in around Kansas and Missouri) to moderate it a bit. Lol.

I wonder if a big lake would increase humidity/rainfall here in the summer.

[BullochResident]

More rain moving in. The gauge has completely filled up. That means there's been over 5 inches of rain here since yesterday morning.

Originally Posted by tommyFL

Looks like we'll drop into the 50s for the first time next weekend...about a month later than usual. Better late than never, I suppose.

I'm seeing it too. That sweet sweet northwest flow setting up on Saturday. I may even drop into the 30s Saturday night!

[ChuckG2008]

Originally Posted by Cambium

6:30am temps. Below normal from Northern Virginia to New Hampshire back to Illinois.

Hartford normal low is 35°. At 29 right now. Not the low. 31° here. Time to light the stove.

In case you miss it, how can you, NYC La Guardia at 48°F. How sad.

Just amazing. 30-40 miles to the west, 30-40 miles to the east, 30-40 miles to the north and 30-40 miles to the south and it's all mid 30s and colder. I'm amazed how warm the NY heat island is compared to coastal NJ and Long Island even