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Nino 3.4 region forecasted to get warmer and then peak in mid-late Fall sometime before getting cooler in that region and dropping through the winter and almost Neutral in the Spring.
Nino 1+2 region on the way down (getting cooler) and the mean of all models has it leveling off next month till Spring
Looks like it already peaked though and is on the way down.
Joe Bastardi needs to "man up" and admit he's wrong about this one. El Niño is far from over; in fact it's only just began and this winter will rival the 1997-1998 El Niño.
BTW; since you like to bash Southern California's summers for being too cold for the beach, FYI, SST hit a whopping 79 F in San Diego and 76 F at Santa Monica Pier; warmer than your NJ beaches right now and this wouldn't be possible in a "neutral-heading summer".
Likely, our drought will end and you will get a warmer than normal winter.
Joe Bastardi needs to "man up" and admit he's wrong about this one. El Niño is far from over; in fact it's only just began and this winter will rival the 1997-1998 El Niño.
BTW; since you like to bash Southern California's summers for being too cold for the beach, FYI, SST hit a whopping 79 F in San Diego and 76 F at Santa Monica Pier; warmer than your NJ beaches right now and this wouldn't be possible in a "neutral-heading summer".
Likely, our drought will end and you will get a warmer than normal winter.
Take a look at SST around northern Australia. They are warming up. That is never a good sign for an El Nino this time of year. And it does look like it has reached its peak doesn't it?
I would love a warmer than normal winter after the last two, or even just an average winter. So I hope it does replicate 1997-98. But what Joe B and others are saying is that the warm blob in the NE Pacific will not make this like 1997-98. And that blob has gone no where. A few posts above claimed it was on the way out. Well the latest SST don't show that at all.
I agree with Tom. It seems as if it peaked and will probably slowly dissipate, though I'm sure El Nino conditions will remain into the winter. As for the warm blob, they only way I see that dissipating is if El Nino pushes storms through the North Pacific this winter and churn up that water which will cause cooler water to upwell.
JB's #1 analog year for this winter is 57-58'. Notice how similar the SST's are (both El Nino regions and the North Pacific)
During that winter December was mild or much of the country (aside for Florida). January remain mild in the interior, bu the South and East coast was colder than normal excluding New England, and February it was just brutal.
Because of that warm blob, I'm willing to bet we won't see a 97-98 pattern this winter.
During the warm winter analogs, the warmest anomaly is located off the coast of South America. Not the Central Pacific which is the case now. Also look at the cooler SST's in the North Pacific. Certainly not the case now
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 09-02-2015 at 06:25 AM..
Lol, what does the JMA and Euro show? I don't buy anything from CFS. Usually off by quite a bit.
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