Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Whats funny is when looking at this, it will show that we just had a weak El Nino winter but I thought they didn't classify it as that for this past winter.
Given the drought panic and hysteria, I'm betting on a super El Nino. It will probably rain and flood because people expect the opposite.
I think we've reached "peak drought".
We reached "peak hurricane" in 2005, when people went on and on about how this was the "new norm" and such. Of course its been abnormally quiet for the last decade in spite of the hysteria.
Its possible the PDO cycle is flipping back to warm. Yes they average 20-30 years, but some could be shorter and some longer.
JB stated that this El Nino will get to 1.5 to maybe 2.0 oceanic Nino index... Basin wide. And have very similar features with the 57-59' and 65-66' events
The most compelling difference between 2015 and 2014, however, is that the atmosphere finally appears to be responding strongly to warm ocean temperature anomalies. Easterly trade winds have slackened across the entire Pacific Basin, and a very strong westerly wind burst–on par with those which occurred in advance of the powerful 1997-1998 event–is currently ongoing near the Dateline. Further, observed SST anomalies in the far Eastern Pacific are now higher than those in the West Pacific, which means that the East-West anomaly difference is now greater than zero.
JB stated that this El Nino will get to 1.5 to maybe 2.0 oceanic Nino index... Basin wide. And have very similar features with the 57-59' and 65-66' events
Lol that guy is incredible. He picked the El Nino years that had very cold winters again in the eastern 2/3 of the US. His bias knows no bounds. He better hope it is not 97-98 cause that was a complete non winter. And 83-83 was mild too considering it was the 1980's. The guy has just a brain block when it comes to saying anything about a mild winter. He just can't do it. I have news for Joe, sooner or later there will be a string of non winters, cause it has happened repeatedly in our history. I'm thinking of dropping the subscription to his service I'm so sick of his outright cold bias.
For those wondering... Use this site and look for the few overlapping months in Summer that shows in red above +1.0. Those were the moderate/strong El Nino years. It's been a while.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
Lol that guy is incredible. He picked the El Nino years that had very cold winters again in the eastern 2/3 of the US. His bias knows no bounds. He better hope it is not 97-98 cause that was a complete non winter. And 83-83 was mild too considering it was the 1980's. The guy has just a brain block when it comes to saying anything about a mild winter. He just can't do it. I have news for Joe, sooner or later there will be a string of non winters, cause it has happened repeatedly in our history. I'm thinking of dropping the subscription to his service I'm so sick of his outright cold bias.
On that note.. As I said in the PM to you, Paul Pastelok took over his seat at accuweather for Long Range Discussions. He's awesome. No fluff, no hype and explains things nicely. Did you use those dates cause you saw his video? Cause those are the analogs he mentioned. 1982-83 & 1997-98. He did touch on there were more like the ones JB mentioned but didn't get into it.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
