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It's hard to say for sure what will happen this winter here, but I think the stuck ridge on the west, cold trough pushing into the east this winter is unlikely. Not that we can't some cold shots, but a stuck cold pattern like the last two isn't likely.
It's hard to say for sure what will happen this winter here, but I think the stuck ridge on the west, cold trough pushing into the east this winter is unlikely. Not that we can't some cold shots, but a stuck cold pattern like the last two isn't likely.
I think a more "sloppy" solution is likely, meaning less arctic cold, but more storms around overall combined with an enhanced subtropical jet.
Since super El Niño is a sealed deal well underway, what do you think about starting another thread about "When will El Niño flip to La Niña and how strong will it be?" Or should we just use this thread to discuss the upcoming La Niña of 2016?
Since super El Niño is a sealed deal well underway, what do you think about starting another thread about "When will El Niño flip to La Niña and how strong will it be?" Or should we just use this thread to discuss the upcoming La Niña of 2016?
It's like half a year from now... there's not much to discuss about it yet. No information, so what's the point? There's plenty to discuss on the current El Niño, it's at its peak, largest effects should be kicking in soon. I guess models already having the timing down, but seems silly when there's a lot more going on with the El Niño than a La Niña that hasn't happened yet. But I'd go for another thread. Or maybe there should be a current El Niño thread on its effects since the strengthening / fading for summer and fall is done. But this thread has become that, anyway.
For Southern California, does an El Nino such as this cause the whole "Pineapple Express" type of storms or will the rain be originating from somewhere else? I heard a weatherhead say something along the line of "Expect rain storms in a conveyor belt fashion for Southern California this winter".
For Southern California, does an El Nino such as this cause the whole "Pineapple Express" type of storms or will the rain be originating from somewhere else? I heard a weatherhead say something along the line of "Expect rain storms in a conveyor belt fashion for Southern California this winter".
Well, I heard this pattern isn't even resembling an El Nino or a strong one for that matter.. Not sure but here's the flow right now with the storm off the California coast.
You can see why Nino 1+2 region has been cooling off...maybe with downwelling?
You have a Pacific Flow straight into Mexico but you have a north flow off the West coast and storms are coming from the Gulf of Alaska recently because the Ridge is positioned there in the Pacific.
If that Ridge flattens out then I can see a Pinapple express setting up.
To me it looks El Ninoish with the Southern Jet Stream flowing across the Pacific into Mexico and southern U.S so not sure why some say it doesn't look like El Nino. Maybe because the Polar Jet stream has been diving much further south in the West?
Well, I heard this pattern isn't even resembling an El Nino or a strong one for that matter.. Not sure but here's the flow right now with the storm off the California coast.
So this must be an El Nino pattern... oh your image shows about the same
Low pressure in the North Pacific, ridge over the northern US. This writer called the storm that hit the Pacific Northwest just over a week ago "anti-El Nino". If you look at the first image, there's a big high off of California in the Pacific, funneling lots of mild, very wet (look at the fourth image) air toward Seattle/Vancouver:
So an El Nino pattern would have a low there, directing moisture towards California.
Quote:
To me it looks El Ninoish with the Southern Jet Stream flowing across the Pacific into Mexico and southern U.S so not sure why some say it doesn't look like El Nino. Maybe because the Polar Jet stream has been diving much further south in the West?
Not sure, maybe the non-El Nino pattern was referring to last week. But yea, I think the classic El Nino pattern would have the southern jet stream further north.
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There's plenty to discuss on the current El Niño, it's at its peak, largest effects should be kicking in soon. I guess models already having the timing down, but seems silly when there's a lot more going on with the El Niño than a La Niña that hasn't happened yet. But I'd go for another thread. Or maybe there should be a current El Niño thread on its effects since the strengthening / fading for summer and fall is done. But this thread has become that, anyway.
