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Lol that guy is incredible. He picked the El Nino years that had very cold winters again in the eastern 2/3 of the US. His bias knows no bounds. He better hope it is not 97-98 cause that was a complete non winter. And 83-83 was mild too considering it was the 1980's. The guy has just a brain block when it comes to saying anything about a mild winter. He just can't do it. I have news for Joe, sooner or later there will be a string of non winters, cause it has happened repeatedly in our history. I'm thinking of dropping the subscription to his service I'm so sick of his outright cold bias.
I think he used the SST patterns of those El Nino's and compared them with the current pattern.
Personally, I think we will see a very strong El Nino (maybe even super El Nino) form. If that happens the Midwest will be milder than normal this winter
Btw,
El Nino winters usually mean normal to below normal temps for the east coast
With higher precip
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 05-12-2015 at 11:03 AM..
For those wondering... Use this site and look for the few overlapping months in Summer that shows in red above +1.0. Those were the moderate/strong El Nino years. It's been a while.
On that note.. As I said in the PM to you, Paul Pastelok took over his seat at accuweather for Long Range Discussions. He's awesome. No fluff, no hype and explains things nicely. Did you use those dates cause you saw his video? Cause those are the analogs he mentioned. 1982-83 & 1997-98. He did touch on there were more like the ones JB mentioned but didn't get into it.
I like Paul, and you know I think he is usually pretty good on the mark with his predictions. We all have biases, but weather forecasters should try their best to leave those out. El Ninos bring snowy winters a lot which you should like, but they tend to bring more moderated temps as well. I would be very happy with a classic average temp winter.
Right now I'm more concerned that this El Nino will make the summer miserable for me. I strongly dislike dry summers. Everything is starting to dry up already. I like thunderstorms a lot. I want loads of thunderstorms. Looks like El Nino kills that. Personally I wish the thing would fade away to a strong La Nina, but I doubt that is gonna happen.
I think he used the SST patterns of those El Nino's and compared them with the current pattern.
Personally, I think we will see a very strong El Nino (maybe even super El Nino) form. If that happens the Midwest will be milder than normal this winter
Btw,
El Nino winters usually mean normal to below normal temps for the east coast
With higher precip
But that depends strongly on the type of El Nino. Because of the increased precip, they tend to bring less extreme low temps. I have a strong interest in gardening obviously, and I don't want to lose any more plants than these last two winters did to me. Below average means nothing unless you look at how low it got for the extremes. El Nino's tend to moderate the extremes.
Also, strong El Ninos bring about mild winter low temps. The coldest low temp in 1997-98 was 16F, zone 8b, all winter here. 1982-83 Jan mean temp 1.1F above average. Feb was 1.8 below avg with one single digit low temp of 3F with that day above freezing. 1982-83 winter had only 8 ice days total. 1997-98 had one ice day lol. Those two winters were way more mild than the last two we just had. I know Bastardi is again calling for a winter even colder than the last two, but Bastardi better hope we don't have that type of El Nino. As I said, hell will freeze over before that guy forecasts an above average winter in the east. And note something, he has no interest at all in the western US and rarely mentions what kind of winter he expects for them.
I think he used the SST patterns of those El Nino's and compared them with the current pattern.
Personally, I think we will see a very strong El Nino (maybe even super El Nino) form. If that happens the Midwest will be milder than normal this winter
Btw,
El Nino winters usually mean normal to below normal temps for the east coast
With higher precip
I also think it is silly to think they can know what SST's will look like in August let alone next January. Analogs can't tell you what SST's look like 6 months down the road when so many teleconnections are interplaying.
Looks like the vast majority of El Nino's the East Coast sees below normal temps
another look globally
Quote:
As I said, hell will freeze over before that guy forecasts an above average winter in the east. And note something, he has no interest at all in the western US and rarely mentions what kind of winter he expects for them.
He has talked about it extensively and mentions all the time that positive PDO is to blame.
Let's hope El Nino does not get that strong, the effects for the upcoming Fall and Winter could be more on the disastrous side.
You are right that California, in particular, seems to oscillate between drought, fire, and flood/mudslide. And they often interact. I am guessing this fire season will be epic, so it would just follow Murphy's Law that next winter would have extremely heavy rain.
Disasters aside, California has tremendously heavy rain at times, and good flood control infrastructure. Heavy and sustained winter rains would be needed to put a dent in the water deficit in the state. The state's agriculture depends upon a massive array of over 1000 reservoirs, some massive, which help it weather a dry year or two. A massive rain and snow year might actually move the patient out of intensive care.
Looks like the vast majority of El Nino's the East Coast sees below normal temps
another look globally
He has talked about it extensively and mentions all the time that positive PDO is to blame.
Below normal due to increased precip. The last two strong El Ninos resulted in below avg winters here, but nothing like these last two winters. And the duration of the cold and extreme lows were not as bad as these last two winters. It would be interesting to see how what kind of weather we would have if it is a strong El Nino. But the idea that they can predict that now just seems silly to me. It is months away and many things can change.
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