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Not really. I mean, weather-wise, sure. But that would be a pretty big disaster event. Better just to move to your ideal climate.
Agreed. The impact it had on Europe and North America during the Year Without a Summer was catastrophic. Admittedly we are a little more advanced now, but still rely on agriculture for food.
Agreed. The impact it had on Europe and North America during the Year Without a Summer was catastrophic. Admittedly we are a little more advanced now, but still rely on agriculture for food.
We'd just import what we needed, though. The government gets a lot more spendy in disasters anyhow - in a nationwide disaster, nobody would be without a job. We'd all be pitching in to save ourselves. I think it'd do a lot more good in the end, despite the initial hardship.
We'd just import what we needed, though. The government gets a lot more spendy in disasters anyhow - in a nationwide disaster, nobody would be without a job. We'd all be pitching in to save ourselves. I think it'd do a lot more good in the end, despite the initial hardship.
Ahhh, Found composites that show the years of PDO/AMO combos.. Cool!
Top right is Warm PDO (Pw) and Cool AMO (Ac).
These are the precip anomalies.. New England drier than normal. Southeast Wet.
Using those years listed (and I don't know how they were able to get data of the Pacific and Atlantic that far back before 1950) here is how our Winter temp departures looked. I like that combo! Warm Pacific/Cool Atlantic.
This is using the 1971-2000 normal since 1981-2010 are bit warmer and wouldn't show it as good since we're using much earlier dates..
Accuweather's First thoughts. The forecast won't be out till end of October.
This is from Paulie P's blog.
Early Winter Preview Showing El Nino Dominance, but With Concerns the PDO Can Have More Influence as Well
Quote:
1. The Northwest will have below-normal precipitation as many of the fronts will be weaker for this region. There will be a big split in the storm track, with one track well north into western Alaska and a southern, stronger track through southern California and Mexico. This will lead to a less impressive winter season with below-normal snowfall expected.
2. The Southwest will have a very active winter season, even moreso than last year, with each month going through significant wet and snowy periods. There is low confidence, however, on the extent northward into northern California. We have more confidence in the Four Corners for the rain/snow that is expected.
3. Many of these storms will tend to weaken coming out of the Plains, though a couple can produce some snow in the Midwest. This is why we do not have below-normal snowfall there, just normal. However, storms will pick up moisture from the Gulf and we can see four or five big rain events from Texas to the Southeast.
4. Last year, there were numerous ice events from the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. As indicated on the map, we do not expect the same occurrence this year. There is a small chance for ice storms in this area, but a higher chance across upstate New York and northern New England. The rain and snow lines should be farther north and west as compared to last year.
5. Occasional severe weather is not uncommon in an El Nino, the pattern that we are looking at heading into late fall and winter. Storms that lift out from the Gulf will head northward toward Ohio Valley and at times toward the Southeast. The storms that move into the Southeast can be the biggest threat for severe weather.
6. With the lack of arctic blasts, at least through the early part of the winter season, we expect less in the amount of snow around the Great Lakes. Also, we noticed water temperatures are running cooler now and will remain cool into the winter in this pattern. This could have some impact on how long lake-effect opportunities last into the winter. Last year, there was a significant event that took place near Buffalo. We do not expect an event of that magnitude this year.
7. Even though our snow, temperature and precipitation maps highlight specific areas, there will be a few storms in the Midwest, with some threatening the Northeast as well, which will drive people to the stores for snow equipment and salt. The areas that I am least impressed for snow this year, unlike the start of last winter season, is the interior Southeast and southern Appalachians. Another area where snow should be scarce through much of the season is the northern High Plains.
Quote:
The snow map below is a first shot of where we feel, for now, high confidence on areas above normal for the season and below normal (my season is October-April). I use percentages of normal from 121 percent to 150 for above. Greater than 150 is much above. For below normal, I use 51 percent to 80 and anything less is much below.
But the big gap of just normal snowfall for most of the nation may change as we head toward early October's forecast and late November's update. It is a matter in determining the strengthen of the storm track early in the season from the southwest to the Ohio Valley and Midwest. If stronger, then normal snowfall will work. A weaker early storm track, then we will need to add a below-normal area. The snowfall map has higher risk than the other maps at this time.
Not a bad map for the SE. Wish that green was set a bit further north, but as long as we're in it, I'm happy. Even normal precip makes for a good, rainy winter, so I should be good either way. I like the idea of late-autumn severe - nothing's better than a 60 mph wind during leaf-down season...lol.
As always, I keep my expectations of snow at zero - can't get hurt that way. You just can't expect much at 1.8 inches annual average...lol.
Agreed. The impact it had on Europe and North America during the Year Without a Summer was catastrophic. Admittedly we are a little more advanced now, but still rely on agriculture for food.
It would mean massive crop failures in North America; the deep south and west coast might be ok. The US is a net exporter of food, food prices would go way up. Developed countries are rich enough they can afford to import extra food, but for poorer places the situation would be nasty.
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I was hoping for below average 
