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Old 08-14-2015, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Northern Ireland and temporarily England
7,668 posts, read 5,258,790 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
Melting Greenland ice sheets apparently. Not only has it ruined our chances of sustained summer heat, but will probably scupper our chances at a cold winter if the jet stream aligns along the deep SST gradient and sends a load of unsettled nonsense our way. A winter of rain will be severely depressing.

But, at the same time, NW winds will be colder than normal.
Cold Zonality can bring alot of snow for me. Last winter was very snowy, not necessarily lying snow but it snowed alot.

A cold atlantic will allow arctic air from Canada to come here. Hopefully my winter holiday goes ahead.
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Old 08-14-2015, 07:13 AM
 
Location: South Jersey
14,497 posts, read 9,430,555 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This tells me exactly what those El Nino maps show how the Polar jet is more northwards and could benefit Quebec and New England more. This might not be a mid west winter.

Strong El Nino years.

Philly Snowfall Totals

1957-58: 42"
1965-66: 23"
1972-73: T

Burlington,VT Snowfall Totals

1957-58: 95"
1965-66: 112"
1972-73: 90"

Get your Ski's ready.
I hope Philadelphia never sees another winter like 72-73, LOL. That's the only one I'm aware of in recorded history without a measurable amount of accumulating snow (only a trace).
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Old 08-14-2015, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Richmond, Virginia Strong El Nino Years:

1877-78: No Data
1888-89: No Data
1896-97: No Data

1905-06: 15.4" (+59% above normal)
1940-41: 9.2" (-5% below normal)
1957-58: 20.6" (+112% above normal)
1965-66: 29.2" (+201% above normal)

1972-73" 6.7" (-31% below normal)
1982-83: 29.4" (+203% above normal)
1997-98: 0" (-100% below normal)

That is interesting!! Double & triple the normal amount of snow 3 times. Last one nothing!

Richmond even got more snow than Philly in the 1972-73 season.

Over 2 feet of snow those El Nino years. Normal is 9.7"! Wow
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Old 08-15-2015, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Pluto's Home Town
9,982 posts, read 13,759,513 times
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Howdy weatherheads!

Anyone want to prognosticate on the upcoming winter in Flagstaff, AZ? I stumbled over one site that claimed a pretty big winter is likely. Flagstaff averages about 100" of snow a year, but has been well below that the last few years. Anynone have access to totals from past El Ninos?
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Old 08-16-2015, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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lol. And it's out. Old Farmers Almanac Prediction. New Farmers Almanac prediction due later this month.

Super Cold, Slew of Snow in Old Farmer's Almanac Forecast - ABC News


"" Just when you thought you had gotten over last winter, be warned: The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts it will be super cold with a slew of snow for much of the country, even in places that don't usually see too much of it, like the Pacific Northwest.

If you don't want to read about those four-letter words, there's plenty more to peruse in the folksy, annual book of household tips, trends, recipes and articles, such as animal jealousy, the history of shoes and anticipation for the biggest Supermoon in decades in November 2016.

Otherwise, look for above-normal snow and below-normal temperatures for much of New England; icy conditions in parts of the South; and frigid weather in the Midwest. The snowiest periods in the Pacific Northwest will be in mid-December, early to mid-January and mid- to late February, the almanac predicts.

"Just about everybody who gets snow will have a White Christmas in one capacity or another," editor Janice Stillman said from Dublin, New Hampshire, where the almanac is compiled. It's due out in the coming week.

The almanac says there will be above normal-rainfall in the first half of the winter in California, but then that will dry up and the drought is expected to continue. "We don't expect a whole lot of relief," Stillman said.
The weather predictions are based on a secret formula that founder Robert B. Thomas designed using solar cycles, climatology and meteorology. Forecasts emphasize how much temperature and precipitation will deviate from 30-year averages compiled by government agencies.

No one's perfect, and some meteorologists generally pooh-pooh the Almanac's forecasts as too unscientific to be worth much. The almanac, which defends its accuracy for its predictions overall, says its greatest errors were in underestimating how far above normal California temperatures and Boston-area snowfall would be, although it did predict both would be above normal.

The record-breaking winter in Boston dumped more than 110 inches of snow on the city. The almanac doesn't call for as much this year.

The 224-year-old almanac, believed to be the oldest continually published periodical in North America, is 26 years older than its closest competitor, "The Farmers' Almanac," published in Maine and due out later in August. ""
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Old 08-16-2015, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Old Farmers Almanac doesn't flip flop like CPC and models like a 10 yr old could do.. They been wrong before but they stand by each prediction and they been right as well. I like that they use solar activity, atmosphere conditions & prevailing weather patterns in their predictions..

Old Farmer's Almanac
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Old 08-16-2015, 05:05 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
14,497 posts, read 9,430,555 times
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Farmers Almanac seems to be at least as trustworthy anyway, LOL.
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Old 08-17-2015, 05:03 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Stupid comment about the matchup but interesting about the energy demand. Will this winter be another high demand one? At least oil prices are at the lowest in decades for those with oil heat.

https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/633228877712760832
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Old 08-17-2015, 08:00 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
2,850 posts, read 1,970,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snj90 View Post
I hope Philadelphia never sees another winter like 72-73, LOL. That's the only one I'm aware of in recorded history without a measurable amount of accumulating snow (only a trace).
Just head down to Macon, GA. They got 16" that year in their snowiest winter on record.
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Old 08-17-2015, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by srfoskey View Post
Just head down to Macon, GA. They got 16" that year in their snowiest winter on record.
. Comments like this help create a vision and sometimes confirmation in my head. Meaning.. It's pretty obvious when that area of the Pacific is warm (El Ninos), it increases the Sub Tropical Jet stream (moisture)... so if and when the right setup happens with the polar Jet stream diving down injecting cold air in.. SNOW falls..Big snowstorms happen. And the southeast has been painted being wet during El Ninos so your comment makes a lot of sense looking at those years and the SouthEast.
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