Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (snowy, warm, record, Chicago)

[alex985]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Assume you mean "west" there, yup.. Our Averages would be more bland without big ranges and definitely more mild.




Yup, as the Trough digs in the West and the Upper Low spins up towards the Mid West that will draw a more south flow from the Gulf.


=============================


Snow in Miami? Ok, maybe not Miami but GFS12z says cold enough for it in Orlando in 10 days.


Gulf effect snow? 850mb freezing line dives well south! DAMN!





Min temps from this run.

GFS models always overstate the marine effect of the climate down here. No way would the lows only be 49-50 F with 850 mb temperatures of 0 C aloft. Lows would probably be in the mid-high 30s. I saw this same model predict low 80s for highs many times during summertime down here.

[chicagogeorge]

South Texas is broiling already

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by alex985

No way would the lows only be 49-50 F with 850 mb temperatures of 0 C aloft. Lows would probably be in the mid-high 30s. I saw this same model predict low 80s for highs many times during summertime down here.

850s are in the single digits on that map down there but maybe there are other factors in play at that hour its showing? Clouds would be one reason why its higher than what it should be with those H8 temps. Judging by where the freezing line is sitting I would say for sure there is a front hanging around so probably why the higher temps?


Anyway .. for fun... maybe you can post back the temps in Miami on these days.. maybe do day before and after these too.


Here are the Top 5 lowest 850mb temps over Miami.

‐6.8°C Feb 24, 1989
‐2.8°C Feb 22, 1978
‐0.7°C Feb 13, 1985
‐0.6°C Feb 5, 1970
‐0.2°C Feb 4, 1970

[muslim12]

72 right now.

[Infamous92]

Made it up to 65 today.

[Cambium]

NWS NY...no, really? Cant be. Am I the only one that said Temps would be warmer than forecast? Just wait till Spring.

===================

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
100 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

FORECAST UPDATE TO MAKE TWO CHANGES. THE FIRST WAS TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST ON LONG ISLAND...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. THE SECOND...WAS TO CUP BACK POPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


===================

NWS Boston

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

7 AM UPDATE...
HAVE MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TRENDS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS...WE WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE
LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS AS THE WARMTH PROMOTES MIXING OF THE 30 TO
40 KT WINDS JUST AROUND 2 KFT ALOFT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE S/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR FORCING IS MORE PREVALENT. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE. WINDS
BACKING W BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

=====================

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
127 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

130 PM UPDATE...
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS
REACHED AT PROVIDENCE AROUND NOON AND TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO
TYING RECORDS AT WORCESTER AND BOSTON. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LOWELL MA TO
WORCESTER MA TO DANBURY CT. IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT
CAPE...ISLANDS...AND SOUTH COAST...WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S THANKS TO THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE COOLER OCEAN
WATERS.

[Cambium]

Bridgeport 3 degrees away from breaking record high for todays date.


Feb 1, 2012 was 62°
Feb 1, 2016 hit 60°


Hartford,CT(BDL) no where near


Feb 1, 1989 was 67°
Feb 1, 2016 hit 61°


Providence, RI Broke record


Feb 1, 1989 was 64°
Feb 1, 2016 hit 66°


Boston, MA 2 away


Feb 1, 1989 was 66°
Feb 1, 2016 hit 65°

[denverian]

Snow has begun here in Denver (in the city)... they're predicting something like 6 - 12", depending on elevation. Saturday was in the 60s and I wore shorts!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by denverian

Snow has begun here in Denver (in the city)... they're predicting something like 6 - 12", depending on elevation. Saturday was in the 60s and I wore shorts!

Just was watching TWC and saw a pretty cool segment showing how terrain plays a role in Colorado.


Aside from the 10,000' + peaks west of Denver which increase lift which means more moisture is rung out of the atmosphere... they talked about the winds.


Surface(low level) winds are going to be from the East but winds along the front range will be from the north. This is a current map. You can see the winds behind the range right now from the North, in a few hours will be in front of the range. This creates a "Barrier Jet" which is another way to squeeze out more moisture and drop it as snow.


Good stuff! Thank God for TWC and online videos. If it wasn't for the mountains you wouldn't get that Barrier to happen which gives you that lift up into the atmosphere and obviously it wouldn't have been as much snow if the terrain was flatter where winds would just flow across easier.

[Cambium]

No clouds for Phill in PA tomorrow. Should see his shadow. 6 more weeks of winter. Lol!

What a joke that tradition is.

https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/694295990807982080