Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (Atlanta, Boston, Miami, NYC)

[srfoskey]

I'd gladly take 9-12" of snow and 40 F averages.

But I don't buy the 25% of normal around Lake Superior. That seems like that would be around record low levels.

[unobtainium]

Bastardi always predicts colder than normal for the eastern U.S., no matter what. El Niño shouldn't have a cooling effect that far north.

[WayneCounty]

JB is a crackpot met. Completely unprofessional and almost always wrong. Also a climate change denier. Warm anomalies should be farther south and east.

[chicagogeorge]

^^

He's had a better track record than NOAA and most other met agencies and companies

Grading the winter forecasts | Weather - WLKY Home

Last winter, NOAA scored a C for a NATIONAL GRADE and a C for LOCAL GRADE, while JB (Weather Bell) had an A- for NATIONAL GRADE and an A+ for

LOCAL GRADE


His forecast for the US resembles the Japanese Met forecast for this winter




http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/resea...l/outlook.html

Originally Posted by unobtainium

Bastardi always predicts colder than normal for the eastern U.S., no matter what. El Niño shouldn't have a cooling effect that far north.

Not all El Nino's are alike.


Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I - Page 25 - Southeastern States - American Weather


Depending on what region is seeing the higher anomalies, that would influence US winter very differently. Higher anomalies near South America create a totally different pattern than higher anomalies in the Central Pacific.

Take a look at the moderate El Nino of 09/10



or the 1957-58 El Nino which was strong


http://firsthandweather.com/748/el-n...-of-this-mean/


But look at February 1958 (brutal)


http://firsthandweather.com/748/el-n...-of-this-mean/

[chicagogeorge]

and some more evidence that you just can't lump all El Nino's together


https://twitter.com/GregPostel/statu...96221744168960

[chicagogeorge]

And don't forget that there are other teleconnections that can influence the winter. Like the AO index. Food for thought.... Had enough yet?

https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/628963331039227904


https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/statu...63838264758272

[unobtainium]

We shall see. I think it will be fascinating to watch how this winter plays out. Strongly negative AO, powerful El Niño, and there's still a big warm blob in e NE Pacific. So many factors and unknowns.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by WayneCounty

JB is a crackpot met. Completely unprofessional and almost always wrong. Also a climate change denier. Warm anomalies should be farther south and east.

I agree one of the most unprofessional meteo out there. Always puts politics and anti Obama rants into his blogs. But he also knows forecasting. I wouldn't count out his forecast. He does get some wrong, but I remember back in 2011 he was claiming some cold winters were coming up. He also believes that the flip back to cold PDO will happen very soon. That will be a relief to me. Warm PDO gives us some very cold winters.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

You might, but I don't think Tom from Philly will like it...

You're just trying to bait me George lol. Sorry you had a complete non summer, such a shame. Every single winter that you wish for a super cold one for Philly, I'll jinx your summer like I have the last two years.


Here every month of summer this year was above average, quite unlike your summer.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

You're just trying to bait me George lol. Sorry you had a complete non summer, such a shame. Every single winter that you wish for a super cold one for Philly, I'll jinx your summer like I have the last two years.


Here every month of summer this year was above average, quite unlike your summer.

Yup, it was a horrible summer for my standards. However, August wasn't that bad here. Yes, most stations around Chicagoland will end up a bit below average, but not that much below like we had in June and July. MDW will end up with an average high of 82.5F. Normal is 82.6F. The Mean may actually be above average.
ORD will be below average and so will my suburb.

Good luck come Dec-Feb