Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (tornadoes, snow, warm, average)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by alex985

What's with the random swath of above normal temps in GA in between two below average periods in both FL and TN?

That map seemed so off to me, I checked the surface from that same run for the same hour and there's a High Pressure over Florida with sunny skies "south" of that cold front. How can it be below normal there and above normal in the gulf states? Anyway ... moving on, that run is old now.


Checking models for new updates now..

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by Cambium

That map seemed so off to me, I checked the surface from that same run for the same hour and there's a High Pressure over Florida with sunny skies "south" of that cold front. How can it be below normal there and above normal in the gulf states? Anyway ... moving on, that run is old now.


Checking models for new updates now..

Its a win-win-win solution. I get above normal temps, you get the cold temps you want, and alex gets the cooler temps he wants.

[Cambium]

I know we like maps but the maps only give us the average or a snap shot of only that single day.


So lets look at what's coming up per the latest Euro00z Data.

Normal 850mb temp over Raleigh is +3.5C
Normal 850mb temp over Hartford is -6.5C


Here's Raleigh's Data


You got Rain Tuesday and Wednesday.
You got a below normal airmass Thursday to Saturday but nothing crazy
Looks like below freezing at the surface only Saturday morning
Seasonable after Saturday


Pretty incredible seeing the difference of North Carolina and CT now since the front/border of the cold air masses aren't pushing that far south anymore.







Here is Hartford's Data. Looking at the 850mb temp column there's going to be a cold below normal period next weekend. The rest looks seasonable. Well above normal with the rain and storm.


Notice March 1st. Should we fall for another snowstorm being shown this far out?

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I know we like maps but the maps only give us the average or a snap shot of only that single day.


So lets look at what's coming up per the latest Euro00z Data.

Normal 850mb temp over Raleigh is +3.5C
Normal 850mb temp over Hartford is -6.5C


Here's Raleigh's Data


You got Rain Tuesday and Wednesday.
You got a below normal airmass Thursday to Saturday but nothing crazy
Looks like below freezing at the surface only Saturday morning
Seasonable after Saturday


Pretty incredible seeing the difference of North Carolina and CT now since the front/border of the cold air masses aren't pushing that far south anymore.







Here is Hartford's Data. Looking at the 850mb temp column there's going to be a cold below normal period next weekend. The rest looks seasonable. Well above normal with the rain and storm.


Notice March 1st. Should we fall for another snowstorm being shown this far out?

Goodness -14 c for you guys and we barely get below freezing? How tight can a temp gradient get? Hard to believe how cold it got just 1 week ago under a similar setup, now we will barely be below freezing and you guys well below it, after mid feb Arctic outbreaks have to be strong to get us below 20 and exceptional to bring us below 15. Record low for March is 11, and you literally see the upward trend if you plot record lows from mid Feb to mid march, even harder to believe though that this time last year we were in the deep freeze.

[chicagogeorge]

Mild temps annihilate snow, but new storm may bring it back | Chicago Weather Center: Skilling's Forecast and Chicago Severe Weather Alerts






https://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy/st...17332679262208

[Shalop]

Record warmth here.

Yesterday reached 18C, only 2C off the record max for the entire month.

Today we're already up to 14C at 1pm; the morning low didn't even fall below 5C.

Really unfortunate, couldn't even fall asleep yesterday night, despite the heat being turned off and the window open. Had to break out my summer blanket rather than my usual thick comforter. Room temp was all the way up to 21C, while normally it's 17C.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I know we like maps but the maps only give us the average or a snap shot of only that single day.


So lets look at what's coming up per the latest Euro00z Data.

Normal 850mb temp over Raleigh is +3.5C
Normal 850mb temp over Hartford is -6.5C


Here is Hartford's Data. Looking at the 850mb temp column there's going to be a cold below normal period next weekend. The rest looks seasonable. Well above normal with the rain and storm.

Surface temperatures look cold for this time of year, though the 6 hourly misses the high. Average high for the beginning of March is 43°F (6°C).

Notice March 1st. Should we fall for another snowstorm being shown this far out?

umm, no

[snj90]

still too far out.. but maybe 1 or 2 more snowfalls wouldn't be out of the question. Likely nothing for the rest of February though.

[ral31]

Moderate Risk tomorrow. I think this is the highest risk issued since the Dec 23 outbreak in the northern MS, west TN area.

Similar area at risk as Christmas Day 2012.



...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

...COASTAL SC...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 02/22/2016

[chicagogeorge]

The first couple weeks of March will not be spring-like for Eastern CONUS and Western Europe


https://twitter.com/judah47/status/701882657270013952