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Is the current negative PNA connected at all to El Nino, or unrelated? I find it interesting that the PNA is forecasted to be strongly negative for many weeks.
Is the current negative PNA connected at all to El Nino, or unrelated? I find it interesting that the PNA is forecasted to be strongly negative for many weeks.
PNA more related to Nino than NAO is due to the Pacific influence. I'm not sure if there were any years with an El Nino and a positive PNA average. probably why average maps show warmth for us.
PNA more related to Nino than NAO is due to the Pacific influence. I'm not sure if there were any years with an El Nino and a positive PNA average. probably why average maps show warmth for us.
So basically the signal gets stronger during Fall and Winter with an ongoing ENSO event then? That could be a big factor toward shifting the scale to above average temperatures for the East if this stays consistent.
So basically the signal gets stronger during Fall and Winter with an ongoing ENSO event then? That could be a big factor toward shifting the scale to above average temperatures for the East if this stays consistent.
Yup... But my saving grace is that the peak of Nino to come in a couple weeks. A weakening El Nino will give way to another driver of the pattern. There is a lag effect and that's why many are banking on a 2nd half cold winter and maybe why some analogs have that as well.
Just found this... .. meanwhile we don't have that this year...
" The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) is one of the most recognized, influential climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes beyond the tropics. It consists of anomalies in the geopotential height fields (typically at 700 or 500mb) observed over the western and eastern United States.
It is important to note that the PNA has been found to be strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The positive phase of the PNA pattern tends to be associated with Pacific warm episodes (El Niño), and the negative phase tends to be associated with Pacific cold episodes (La Niña)."
UK Met model hammering Europe this winter... Shades of 09-10'? Also pulling ridge further west in North America. East Coast might see a lot of action this winter. Still worried about the Midwest
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probably why average maps show warmth for us.
.. meanwhile we don't have that this year...
