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I have a feeling that we are in for a very interesting winter as we haven't seen anything like this before. I like the analysis that Steve D. gave, it was very informative on what is happening around the world. Too many variables to fit into one pattern.
Those of you with AccuPro subscription, check out Ben Noll's write ups recently. He's filling in for Long Ranger Paul Pastelok as he's away for business.
Anyway .. He wrote about the PDO today which I will post in the PDO thread... For now.. here's something to look at
"There are always risks in the winter forecast. Putting out forecasts in the summer and again in September can be tough because the mean upper jet has yet been established and its exact placement which affects the storm track. So we have two potential storm tracks for later in the winter season which can lead to two major differences in snowfall for the Northeast and how far north precipitation will reach the West Coast. This may be determined by the strengthen of the PDO and how much influence it will have on the upper pattern in the northeast Pacific and western Canada. Also, there is a lack of sea ice. This, combined with the warm, northwest Atlantic water, can produce more ridging and perhaps blocking later in the season. Scenario 1 would give much more snow and ice to the Northeast, higher than what we have right now, and lead to colder late-season conditions with a stronger PDO and late-season blocking. Scenario 2 leans more toward our ideas."
Me Likes Senario #1 and those storm tracks... get the right timing and BOOM. Snow.
I ****ing hate everything. I'm sick of this bull**** climate . Not going to bother looking at models/forecasts for a while.
You sound like how I felt last January when we weren't getting snow and the Northeast was getting hammered by storms. Then in February our chance came and we lucked out.
While I know you won't get snow, I'm just saying that you shouldn't give up all hope of cool weather. If we get a winter like 1957-58 (a strong El Nino year), you could have 9 days with highs in the 50s and multiple lows in the 30s.
You sound like how I felt last January when we weren't getting snow and the Northeast was getting hammered by storms. Then in February our chance came and we lucked out.
While I know you won't get snow, I'm just saying that you shouldn't give up all hope of cool weather. If we get a winter like 1957-58 (a strong El Nino year), you could have 9 days with highs in the 50s and multiple lows in the 30s.
I don't remember January being stormy, our first snowstorm of the season came at the very end of January.
10/30/15 Steve D discussion. Let me break it down quick..
A ridge building over the Arctic means it will break off the Polar Vortex and send it elsewhere...but where??!!
Theres a long lag time with results so he thinks a warm Nov/Dec then a cold 2nd half of winter.
El Nino to shift to east based.
Interesting info regarding stratospheric winds and trapping polar air masses in the arctic while mid Latitudes stay warm
Quote:
Noticing some very important observations in the stratosphere this morning surrounding the Polar Vortex. As you can see, the Polar Vortex has been established over the North Pole now. This feature is seen from 10 MB down to 100 MB with a synoptic representation clearly at 500 MB. What I find interesting is the height fields with this PV this morning.
A strong Polar Vortex (PV) is noted for very strong stratospheric winds and the ability to trap Polar/Arctic air masses in the Arctic region while the Mid Latitudes remain mild. In order for this to develop, the developing PV can not be interrupted by “speed bumps” like building ridges into the Arctic for example.
However, that is exactly what we are seeing this morning. We are seeing above normal heights developing over Siberia which happens to be where snow growth has absolutely exploded. We see warm air intrusion right into the heart of the Polar Vortex as well, a sign of building heights later in the weeks to come. We see stratospheric winds weakening, especially on the eastern side of the PV circulation.
All of these factors we are seeing, not waiting for a model to be right, but actually observing all point to one solution. That solution is a PV split and significant high latitude blocking. Now, I would say with the start of this process that we are 6 to 8 weeks away from getting from point A (now +AO/+NAO) to point Z (-AO/-NAO). This process isn’t fast which is why I have November and much of December rather warm. However, now that the process is started, we just have to observe the “end game” so to speak.
So to recap for the last week of October we have seen the following. The stratosphere showing signs of developing PV split. The PDO remain positive. The Atlantic SSTA remain very favorable to support negative NAO in the winter. The El Nino shift from east base to central base with a rapid collapse in NINO 1+2 while rapid warming is developing in NINO 4 due to a nice Kelvin wave.
All points support going winter forecast. We’ll recap again next week!
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