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This indicator is strongly positive of another cold snowy winter. The index that measures this, after a slow start, accelerated in mid month and it has finished. The index finishes among the top 3 which puts it in line with the last 2 winters. The index has worked well if you use it as a straight correlation. In other words fast growth rates mean cold and snowy winters in the east. Where the index failed last year was that the coldest areas were confined to the northeast and not the entire east coast and midwest. The high index reading last year led some long range forecasters to conclude that a pattern of “blocking” would develop. Blocking in the atmosphere at northern latitudes displaces cold air southward. However this did not occur! The atmosphere found a different way to deliver cold air to the east. We rate this indicator as aPOSITIVE for a cold and snowy winter.
NORTH AMERICA SNOW COVER GROWTH
NON FACTOR
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
WILD CARD
NORTHERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
We rate this as a moderate POSITIVE for a cold and snowy winter.
EL NINO
Right now we would rate the El Nino as a NEGATIVE for a cold and snowy winter overall. However if the El Nino does in fact weaken faster than models forecast than it could become a NEUTRAL factor
EL NINO
Right now we would rate the El Nino as a NEGATIVE for a cold and snowy winter overall. However if the El Nino does in fact weaken faster than models forecast than it could become a NEUTRAL factor
Not that there was much snowy about 1972-3 (record low snowfall for New York City for example) but that El Niño petered out pretty fast; we were in neutral territory by, I believe, February and La Niña a month later. Maybe that swan-dive (although almost replicated in 2009-10) was so fast as to create the "sudden death" of winter around New Year to end of January typical of La Niñas. 2009-10 was actually snowy so maybe that's the model to hope for.
As far as La Niñas go the winters of 1970-1 and 2010-11 ended suddenly around the end of January. 1973-4 was more of a fickle pattern where winter popped up with a vengeance in early-to-mid December, early-to-mid January, early-to-mid February and late March, with notable warm spells in mid-to-late December, mid-to-late January, and mid-February to mid-March.
So maybe an early end to El Niño sometimes allows in a good winter (2009-10) and sometimes kills winter (1972-3).
This indicator is strongly positive of another cold snowy winter. The index that measures this, after a slow start, accelerated in mid month and it has finished. The index finishes among the top 3 which puts it in line with the last 2 winters. The index has worked well if you use it as a straight correlation. In other words fast growth rates mean cold and snowy winters in the east. Where the index failed last year was that the coldest areas were confined to the northeast and not the entire east coast and midwest. The high index reading last year led some long range forecasters to conclude that a pattern of “blocking” would develop. Blocking in the atmosphere at northern latitudes displaces cold air southward. However this did not occur! The atmosphere found a different way to deliver cold air to the east. We rate this indicator as aPOSITIVE for a cold and snowy winter.
NORTH AMERICA SNOW COVER GROWTH
NON FACTOR
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
WILD CARD
NORTHERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
We rate this as a moderate POSITIVE for a cold and snowy winter.
EL NINO
Right now we would rate the El Nino as a NEGATIVE for a cold and snowy winter overall. However if the El Nino does in fact weaken faster than models forecast than it could become a NEUTRAL factor
I like this guys forecast because up front he is honest about his chances of being right.
He did say something which people, especially those in Europe, should take note of. In my area, which he covers, snowfall the VAST majority of winters is below the average. It is just that every so often a winter will produce a couple snow bombs which skew the average higher. That is an important factor that people in Europe, with very little variability in winter compared to hear, should keep in mind when picturing what winter looks like around here. We are not by any stretch of the imagination snow bound all winter lol.
Last year we had 23 East Coast Winter storms, 9 of them were strong (winds 52mph+). Looks like intensity has increased over the years but the amount staying the same.
Here's a list of Novembers in moderate-strong El Nino years by average temperature and the by following winter's snowfall. The 1950-2014 November average temperature is 50.7 F, and the average snowfall is 6.7". All data for RDU.
Year / November temperature in given year / Next winter's snowfall
2009 / 53.2 / 8.0
2002 / 49.1 / 7.4
1997 / 47.3 / 2.4
1991 / 50.0 / T
1987 / 52.8 / 7.9
1986 / 52.9 / 10.8
1982 / 51.9 / 11.8
1972 / 48.1 / 11.3
1965 / 50.9 / 11.8
1963 / 51.0 / 3.5
1957 / 51.7 / 7.9
As you can see, 6/7 warmer than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters, but only 2/4 colder than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters.
Here's a list of Novembers in moderate-strong El Nino years by average temperature and the by following winter's snowfall. The 1950-2014 November average temperature is 50.7 F, and the average snowfall is 6.7". All data for RDU.
Year / November temperature in given year / Next winter's snowfall
2009 / 53.2 / 8.0
2002 / 49.1 / 7.4
1997 / 47.3 / 2.4
1991 / 50.0 / T
1987 / 52.8 / 7.9
1986 / 52.9 / 10.8
1982 / 51.9 / 11.8
1972 / 48.1 / 11.3
1965 / 50.9 / 11.8
1963 / 51.0 / 3.5
1957 / 51.7 / 7.9
As you can see, 6/7 warmer than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters, but only 2/4 colder than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters.
Excellent work there! Lets see if we can make it 7 for 8.
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From Ben Noll
"The latest @INPE_CPTEC 'Brazilian Meteogram' for NYC: more mild than not into late-Jan., big chill, snow early Feb. "
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Why I'm rooting for a warm November
