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Is that backed up with past data? I'm looking at this right now, and it's not clear there is a correlation or not.
It's a well-known fact that El Nino brings an active Subtropical Jet Stream and cooler and wetter than average conditions to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic (including Florida).
Yup.. I wonder IF that Jet will stay north of Florida. It happens.
From 2006-07. I think this year that Polar Jet is not that far north in Quebec. Might be dipping into the Northeast U.S. Need good timing
"El Niño events influence the predominate position and strength of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, which in turn affect winter precipitation and temperature patterns across the country. During El Niño events, the jet stream is stronger than normal across the southern U.S. As a result, increased storminess and wetter-than-average conditions occur across the southern tier of the U.S. from central and southern California across the Southwest to Texas and across the Gulf Coast to Florida and the Southeast."
Is that backed up with past data? I'm looking at this right now, and it's not clear there is a correlation or not.
At least from about Orlando on north, since the active subtropical jet moves storms across the peninsula and the Deep South. The storms pull in cold air from the country's mid-section and sometimes, as in 1976-7, Canada, and minimize the effect of the Bermuda High.
1972-3, for example, gave Atlanta a major snowstorm from a storm spawned by the subtropical jet.
This may be the type of winter where it snows here and melts soon after. Which sounds more typical then a long duration snow pack. Makes sense if we're going to get ups and down swings as opposed to a consistent NW flow. Any flow shift or jet lift and will give the snowpack a chance to fully melt. Ive seen 12 inches of snow disappear within a week with sun, fog and 50s.
People like to single out one thing or the other and use as excuses why something can or cant happen when we all know theres so much more involved. Positive NAO during a historic winter last yr. Go figure.
"Innovating forecaster highlights potential for very snowy winter in Mid-Atlantic, D.C.
Most winter outlooks issued so far for the D.C. area, including the Capital Weather Gang’s, have called for mild conditions and below average snow.
But pioneering seasonal weather forecaster Judah Cohen sees signs that the upcoming winter could be cold and snowy just like the last two. While stressing snowfall forecasts are “extremely difficult,” he is predicting a whopping 28 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport, which is almost twice the normal.
Cohen, whose winter outlooks boast a 75 percent accuracy rate over the 15 years he’s issued them, has developed a model for predicting winter conditions that is strongly based on snowfall in Eurasia during October. When snow rapidly piles up in Eurasia at that time, it sets off a chain reaction that he says is linked to cold and often snowy conditions in the eastern U.S. during winter.
And this October, the snow in Eurasia increased quickly for a third straight year"
Overall -.5F anomaly for Philadelphia. Looks close to avg on surface, but his Dec is supposed to be warmer than avg, which means Jan and Feb have to be colder. But last winter overall the departure was -2.8F, but Feb was -9.9F. Overall winter 2013-14 was -2.4F. So, I'm hoping that the -.5F departure correlates with a coldest month anomaly of -1.8F.
It's a well-known fact that El Nino brings an active Subtropical Jet Stream and cooler and wetter than average conditions to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic (including Florida).
Here at the Manoir Acajack there was about 5 cm on the ground this morning.
It will be gone in a day or two as the forecast is for 9-12 C later this week.
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