Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Current SST's if they stay consistent, I would expect a monster ridge over the PNW (like last 2 winters). Generally that would translate to trough east of Rockies, but we will see.
There is a lot of talk to start the week about the sun and what some are calling the next “ice age”. To be frank, the advertisement of an ice age is slightly over the top considering there is still a great deal we do not know about the sun’s evolution over the next 15 years, but clearly some sort of cooling impact should be felt.
This morning I want to bring your attention to the stratosphere at 70 MB. I want to show you the impacts of a quiet sun. This is not a case of the Maunder Minimum which was between 1645 and 1715. My point is that with a slightly less active sun we are seeing a warm stratosphere at 70 MB to 10 MB over the higher latitudes. Typically this time of year the stratosphere runs near to slightly below normal as more direct solar radiation breaks down ozone in the stratosphere creating cooling.
This is not the case this year. This year, with a more quiet sun, the sun spots have decreased steadily leading a lower impact on ozone in the stratosphere. With ozone numbers increasing, the stratosphere is steadily warming as mass in the atmospheric column increases. As a result, the stratosphere presses down on the troposphere and this leads to lower 500 MB heights.
Note that we have seen a strong and strong negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, even rivaling negative standard deviations seen in the winter. Interesting times are certainly ahead and we have the observations. Raw, unaltered, unbiased observations shows us exactly what the impacts are.
In case you didn't read his discussion... A quiet sun leads to a warmer stratosphere which leads to compression at the surface. (lower heights).
I think that North Pacific warm blob will trough the eastern two thirds more frequently than what the models are saying. Maybe a see saw winter?
Yup, maybe flip flop... But There could be a blob and a ridge in the pacific but means nothing if the Polar Jet stream doesn't dip. It might stay in Canada. That would mean normal/warm across most of the U.S.
One of the flaws with 2 Jet streams.. seems harder for the Polar one to dip down. Hopefully the Sub tropical Jet stays suppressed mostly. If it's not going to snow, just give us cold at least.
Also curious why Top 5 best arent after 1935. Lol. In fact. Maybe make a list again using post 1948. Then we can find some analogs to match
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
