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Old 12-10-2015, 05:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Well what I say, if 1980 is anything to go by, then be very afraid (unless you love extreme cold). From 1981 to 1989 the vortex basically parked itself around Montreal. What a joke this whole post seems. He can't be serious. Anyone using the 1980's to talk about a lack of cold and return to normalcy has no clue what they are talking about. January 1985 anyone?
1980s were horrific for snow. I don't know about temps but I do know snow was hard to come by that entire decade.


I think the reason why I have good memories of snowstorms from then is because they rarely happened so when they did, it got stuck in my mind. Then 1990s came along and I have more memories of snowstorms. Then 2000s I lost track. Now 2010s I need to look back at notes because there's been so many. No wonder why data shows it's gotten snowier recently.


Every single year had below normal snowfall in the 1980s. 179" in 10 yrs. WTF. We've gotten that much in last 3 winters. LMAO!
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Old 12-10-2015, 06:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,406 posts, read 74,932,541 times
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Oct 3rd: Well, it's been stormy in the Lower 48 but Polar Jet Stream hasn't really been diving into the East...yet

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Euro00z shows a Stormy pattern next 2 weeks. Troughiness in the East = Cool and Wet.

Frames are for Oct 9, 13, 15, 17. Storm after Storm showing up. This is going to be interesting if continues through winter. You can already see the Polar Jet Stream digging down. 540 line dropping south.
Oct 27th:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Welcome to the new stormy pattern in the U.S.

Here we are heading to Mid December now. We've had quite a few storms in November most of them heading to the Great Lakes thanks to a trough in the Western U.S


Here's a map I made keeping track of all storm paths we had.







I was about to start a thread for the Dec 18-20 storm. Will wait another day. Looks like it's a nice storm for the Northeast. Don't ask what PType yet. The track might be Great Lakes instead of off MA coast.


Storms coming up.


Clipper today dropping some snow for N.Dakota, Minnesota.
Monday 14th decent storm cuts to Great Lakes, Rain for everyone.
Wednesday 16th weak storm from Rockies to Great Lakes, light snow for Plains and Midwest
Thursday 17th storm from Gulf to off SouthEast coast
Friday-Sunday - Stay Tuned where that Gulf storm goes.


Current Surface map


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Old 12-10-2015, 06:27 AM
SFX
 
Location: Tennessee
1,603 posts, read 867,817 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Now 2010s I need to look back at notes because there's been so many. No wonder why data shows it's gotten snowier recently.
It tends to snow more when the winters get colder.





Just realized I need to update that RSS picture.
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Old 12-10-2015, 08:19 AM
 
Location: Seoul
11,556 posts, read 9,296,116 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Well what I say, if 1980 is anything to go by, then be very afraid (unless you love extreme cold). From 1981 to 1989 the vortex basically parked itself around Montreal. What a joke this whole post seems. He can't be serious. Anyone using the 1980's to talk about a lack of cold and return to normalcy has no clue what they are talking about. January 1985 anyone?
http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Cli...annualtemp.pdf
Not really, for Central Park the eighties were a boring decade. I love how 89-90 winter went, 25 degree average in December than a 40 degree average in January, can it be like that every year???

Seems like the dark periods in New York history were the late 70s as mentioned before and also the the late 60s
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Old 12-10-2015, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,406 posts, read 74,932,541 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX View Post
It tends to snow more when the winters get colder..
But it goes against those saying warming is causing more snow. Lol Nice graph. Matches what I saw locally that Bridgeport has been colder and snowier in recent decades.

Was looking at long range, looks like finally the Polar Jet stream likes New England. It trys to stay south of NYC for a while after the 18th. Wonder if we are indeed going to have a 2nd half winter as many suspected. El Nino weakening will be used for sure.

That Vortex is still not budging south though. And I will say it again, I do not see how the Southeast will be below normal. I dont know. Rains wont be enough IMO
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Old 12-10-2015, 09:16 AM
 
Location: South Jersey
14,498 posts, read 9,408,893 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
But it goes against those saying warming is causing more snow. Lol Nice graph. Matches what I saw locally that Bridgeport has been colder and snowier in recent decades.

Was looking at long range, looks like finally the Polar Jet stream likes New England. It trys to stay south of NYC for a while after the 18th. Wonder if we are indeed going to have a 2nd half winter as many suspected. El Nino weakening will be used for sure.

That Vortex is still not budging south though. And I will say it again, I do not see how the Southeast will be below normal. I dont know. Rains wont be enough IMO
Yep, perhaps we will have a 2nd half winter again. Last December was kind of a let down and winter didn't truly start for a while. I'm not sure when that lovely snowpack in the mountains formed for good. Could have been late January (lasted till early April ).

Personally, I'd like to see the changes come by late December and early January.
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Old 12-10-2015, 09:31 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
46,009 posts, read 53,324,806 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Well what I say, if 1980 is anything to go by, then be very afraid (unless you love extreme cold). From 1981 to 1989 the vortex basically parked itself around Montreal. What a joke this whole post seems. He can't be serious. Anyone using the 1980's to talk about a lack of cold and return to normalcy has no clue what they are talking about. January 1985 anyone?
Winters in the 80s don't stand out as that much colder than the recent decade here; it depends on where. January averaged about 1.5°F warmer in the 80s; February 1.5°F colder though last February is so much colder than any other February for either time period it skews the numbers.
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Old 12-10-2015, 09:36 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
46,009 posts, read 53,324,806 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
But it goes against those saying warming is causing more snow. Lol Nice graph. Matches what I saw locally that Bridgeport has been colder and snowier in recent decades.
Scatterplot of monthly snowfall vs monthly mean temperature. Lines are 5th, 25th, median, 75th and 95th percentile for 5°F bins [10-15°F, 15-20°F, etc.]





Correlation disappears below 25°F for Berlin (well above average for January and February) and exists for Amherst (about average for January and February).
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Old 12-10-2015, 09:41 AM
SFX
 
Location: Tennessee
1,603 posts, read 867,817 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
But it goes against those saying warming is causing more snow.
Of course it does, because reality can't be adjusted.

It doesn't matter if you modify the data later, snow isn't fooled by what somebody believes. If there is more snow, it's because it's cold.

The unusually warm winters show up clearly in the snow records. But it isn't as simple as that of course. You can have a month with above average temps, with one cold spell, that dumps record snow amounts. Then looking at the monthly data will show "warmer", even with epic snow amounts.

But those who are experiencing above average temps right now will tell you, it's not making it snow more.
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Old 12-10-2015, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,406 posts, read 74,932,541 times
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Watching the Canadian12z roll in.. At Hr228 still (only goes to 240 so 2 more frames left) but check it out.


Cold day across the Northeast Saturday the 19th with the Jet Stream down to Mid Atlantic. THATS what you need to see to get a big snowstorm chance! And High Pressure over Quebec! Notice the Low in the Gulf forming. Will it ride up the coast??

Wet Southeast next week. Snow for RAlex here?




#Cliffhanger
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