models showing start of rainy season pattern in the caribbean and florida.
According to the current thinking in the NWS Monday could be quite active with strong to severe storms affecting the east coast metro. "SEASONABLY WARM 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE 60S/LOW 70S
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EVERGLADES AND GULF
WATERS. FOR MONDAY...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REACH MID 60S. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...TOWARD FLORIDA. THIS WILL VEER FLOW MORE TO THE
SOUTH...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE PENINSULA. A SERIES OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY LOBES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS
TROUGH/LOW...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SBCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1.5 KJ/KG...SO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TREND
TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MONDAY WITH PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...AND IF THE TREND CONTINUES A RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MAY
BECOME EVIDENT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY...AND
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR SO. WITH PWATS REACHING 1.5
INCHES...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL."
and so finally it begins after 6 months of waiting my favorite time of year is here
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