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Old 07-13-2015, 11:21 AM
 
Location: 30461
2,493 posts, read 1,833,305 times
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So out of a whim, I came across the Wikipedia article describing this high pressure system:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores_High#cite_note-3

Now normally I might take some articles on there with a grain of salt, but there was one part in this article that intrigued me.

"Research into global warming suggests that the Bermuda [High] may be intensifying in some years, independently of oscillations such as ENSO, leading to more precipitation extremes across the Southeastern United States. Latitudinal displacement of the ridge is also occurring, and computer models depict more westward expansion of the anticyclone in the future. However, during the winter of 2009–2010, the Azores High was smaller, displaced to the northeast and weaker than usual"

Traditional maps show an El Nino bringing wetter than average weather across the southeastern US, but if this high continues to remain strong, only the western part of the southeast tends to get the rain (and by that I mean places like Texas and Lousiana).
Another thing I've noticed more recently is the bending of the suptropical jet towards a more northeasterly direction instead of an easterly one. For example, traditional El Nino maps show the subtropical jet draped across Texas going east to Florida, giving all areas across the southeast greater rainfall, but the last decade has seen what I call a more northeasterly jet. It will be draped across Texas and Louisiana, but will travel northeast towards northern Georgia and North Carolina instead of east towards Florida. The only thing I can conclude is that even though we're entering a strong El Nino phase, I still have this gut feeling that the Southern Atlantic states (especially Florida) will continue to be robbed of precipitation as winter arrives because of this stubborn area of high pressure.

That last sentence in bold should also be noted, because that was the bonefide winter that brought consitently cold weather to places in the south Atlantic that don't normally get it. Even these past couple of winters, which brought considerable cold to the continental parts of the eastern US, many areas across the south Atlantic (especially Florida) saw bouts of much warmer than average weather due to the stonger Atlantic High. The Greenland Block of 2009-2010 was the result of an abnormally weak Atlantic High.

This High will the thing I watch as we head into the latter part of the year, not the El Nino.
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