Understanding of meteorological terminology and concepts within NWS forecast texts (ice, average)

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by tommyFL

Gomex is Gulf of Mexico (really weird, that one). I have no clue about HRRR.

High resolution rapid refresh. I figured it started with high res but had to google the rest.

Here is the model:

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

[Ariete]

Well, I asked Tom and he deciphered it:

It will be HOT HOT HOT as we all like! (Though as a meteorogist I shouldn't be allowed to express personal opinions, but to be neutral.) Wednesday will be COOL with only 75F. Anyway, newest Euro models show that the global climate is cooling, not warming, so keep your car engines idling for the whole night just in case. Gas is cheap, at least as long as Exxon is filling my pockets. Especially for Chicago (seen here highlighed on the map so that some of you residents don't put Chicago in North Dakota or something.)

[The Weather Guy]

I'll say 7. A few things I didn't get, the main one being "Vort Field". At first I didn't know what "GOMEX" was but then I figured it out.

[Infamous92]

8/10. I get the majority of it.

HRRR, MID LVL SHORTWAVE, INVERTED TROF (trough I'm assuming), & TEXTBOOK REX-BLOCKING PATTERN are terms I'm not all too familiar with. GOMEX is something I've never seen before, I thought it was a radar or a model at first, but I quickly figured out what it meant.

[Cambium]

Inverted troughs are cool. Basically a trough thats backwards. Typically its north/south and sometimes NW/SE position, but when inverted its basically buckling in towards land (westward). It's fun to see in winter because it enhances snow especially over terrain like the Catskills or any hill.

I remember getting half foot of snow from one. I believe Jan 5, 2011? I'll have to look at my journal. I'll also post a pic tomm.

Its also called a Norlun trough but Norluns have bit different criteria.

Yeah, HRRR (also called Rapid Refresh) is a short range hi-res model. You'll hear me mention it sometimes in winter. Good for summer storms too but I dont deal with them much. Id rather spend time analyzing what I love. :-) Great model since it uses up to date ground OBS and is an hourly model as opposed to NAM being 3hrs each frame

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Inverted troughs are cool. Basically a trough thats backwards.

Isn't that a ridge?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I remember getting half foot of snow from one. I believe Jan 5, 2011? I'll have to look at my journal. I'll also post a pic tomm.

Was actually January 7, 2010.

Originally Posted by G8RCAT

Isn't that a ridge?

Nope. Ridge is a push north of the atmosphere.
Inverted trough is a push west.

There's a few ways to see where it is (sometimes its tough). One is the surface pressure.

Here's March 28, 2015. Typically the isobars are pushing north or East but with certain setups sometimes it pushes West. I know it happens on the interior as well but I'm more familiar with ones along the coast.



Here's another one, March 8, 2013. Low out in the Atlantic is pushing the gradient into land towards the west squeezing against the High Pressure over Ohio Valley.




Another way is through this like Steve D said couple weeks ago.. See the moisture being pushed West over Southern NJ?

"This map is moisture convergence and you can see the influence of the inverted trough rather nicely."

[Cambium]

NWS Boston being funny (purple)... posting most of discussion to see what they are relating it to. lol

And "CRUX"? there's a word you dont see often. lol. And there goes that THETA-E again.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

OVERVIEW...

PESKY UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER CENTRAL AND SE CONUS CERTAINLY THROWING
A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. AS TO THEIR EVOLUTION AS THEY ARE CAPTURED
BY MARITIME FLOW AS THE TREND APPEARS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT POINT OF
DISCREPANCY WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LEADING TO A LEVEL OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF HIGHER
ANOMALOUS H5 HEIGHTS PER EC ENSEMBLES THROUGH MIDWEEK AND AN ONGOING
TREND OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS...AM LEFT FEELING THAT ANY WET-
WEATHER OUTCOMES FOR THE EARLY- TO MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...
NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IN ENDING MODERATE-DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

SMALL NUANCES CONTINUE WITHIN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...BUT A
TREND IS APPARENT WITH MOISTURE LIFTING N OUT OF THE SE-CONUS
AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT FOR THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD.
BLENDING THE EC- DETERMINISTIC/EC-CONTROL/GFS IS A GOOD FOUNDATION
TOWARDS CONVEYING POTENTIAL. CONCERNING THE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE MISSING PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS GOOD-
SAMPLING OF THE N-STREAM DISTURBANCE THAT IS MODELED TO DIG S OUT
OF CANADA. THIS IS LIKELY TO ALLEVIATE WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE
AVAILABILITY OF HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO THE E ALLOWING FOR
RETURN S-FLOW AS THE N-STREAM DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC
MARITIMES BEGINS TO DIG S OUT OF CANADA. INCREASING CLOUDS OUT OF
THE S LATE...SO MAY BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CROSSED FINGERS. BUT IT COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY BENEATH THE CRUX OF HIGH PRESSURE. RADIATIONAL COOLING YIELDS
THE POTENTIAL OF LOWS FALLING DOWN TO THE LOW- TO MID-40S. A FEW
SPOTS IN THE UPPER-30S? NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. S-FLOW AND SUNSHINE
EARLY WILL HELP WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE LOW-70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

S-STREAM ENERGY CERTAINLY LIFTING N AHEAD OF A N-STREAM DISTURBANCE
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY MORE THAN LIKELY
WITH SYNOPTICS INDICATING HIGHER THETA-E MOISTURE ASCENDING BENEATH
DECENT VENTING ALOFT. THEREAFTER THE SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WITH CONTINUING CHANCES OF WET-WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD. SEEMINGLY IT
APPEARS STRONGER DYNAMICS RESIDE N PARENT WITH THE JET-STREAM AND N-
STREAM IMPULSE. MORE SIGNAL IN ADDITION TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
INDICATED PER EC-ENSEMBLE THAT SUGGESTS LIGHT WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY.
STILL NOT THINKING A WASHOUT. SIMPLY NUISANCE. WAVES OF ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE INSTEAD OF A A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. MAYBE SOME
SUNSHINE SNEAKING IN BETWEEN. BUT STILL VARIANCE THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS LEAD TO PERIODS OF HAIR-PULLING AND FORECASTER
AGGRAVATION. SO HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED THE POPS OVER THE PERIOD WITH
CHANCE-WORDING WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE-NORMAL.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...

JUST NO CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. CONTINUED INDICATIONS
OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN BETWEEN. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH H5 HEIGHTS WITH PREFERRED RIDGING OVER THE C-CONUS WITH
TROUGHING IMMEDIATELY E THOUGH PERHAPS OFFSHORE? SUBSEQUENTLY NOT
ALL ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF BEING ABOVE-
NORMAL.

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Nope. Ridge is a push north of the atmosphere.
Inverted trough is a push west.

Thought by "backwards" you meant push north.

Here's some of ours:

Precip is taking its sweet time spreading into Kentucky, as downsloping and low-level dry air work against it. However, still believe it`s a matter of time, especially in east-central and even south-central Kentucky. Have made some tweaks to delay the timing, and keep the POPs in check especially west of I-65.

At this time, we expect light rain showers to invade the Lake Cumberland area around mid-morning and then gradually spread westward toward the I-65 corridor by evening. Rain showers will become more widespread by evening as the mid-level low moves across the region. Overall, today is not necessarily going to be a washout, but there will be periods of off and on rain showers. Temperatures this morning will likely exhibit a diurnal warm up with afternoon readings topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 in the west. As rainfall pushes into the eastern areas this afternoon, temperatures will likely fall. A strong gradient of temperature is likely this afternoon with highs only struggling to warm into the mid-upper 60s in the far east with lower 70s in the corridor between the US 27/127 and I-65. Periods of rain showers are expected this evening and overnight with the main rainfall focus area shifting northward with time. Overnight lows look to cool into the mid to upper 50s.

For Saturday, mostly cloudy skies are expected with scattered showers dotting the landscape. Again, it does not look like a complete washout for those with weekend activities, but periods of on and off showers look likely. The cloudiness will keep temperatures down as well with highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Rainfall amounts of a quarter to three quarters of an inch will be seen across the region through Saturday afternoon. Some localized 1 inch amounts will be possible out toward the I-75 corridor. No hydrological issues are expected as antecedent moisture is scant and the rain will be quite welcome.

[Cambium]

From Alaska.. some stuff we dont hear much of in the lower 48. What stood out for me was the 492DAM over the Russian Arctic. And the costal Low getting absorbed by the Arctic storm

And Id love to live in Arctic Villiage zone # 218. Sounds awesome. Lol.

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY HAS THE LOW MOVING IN A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THAN THE MODELS DID YESTERDAY WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL
USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH ALL THE MODELS HAVING SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE
WEST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 516 DAM CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE LOW IS THEN ABSORBED INTO THE
PRIMARY LOW IN THE ARCTIC. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC WITH A 512 DAM LOW DEVELOPING
OVER COOK INLET BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY 492 DAM LOW OVER THE HIGH RUSSIAN
ARCTIC WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING CONTINUING EAST TO 250 NM NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS
ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...RELATIVELY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR EAST OF
GALENA. TEMPERATURES CAM BE EXPECTED TO RISE 6 TO 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE...AND OVER THE ARCTIC EAST OF
NUIQSUT.

SURFACE...988 MB LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO BE NEAR
COLDFOOT BY MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF
BARTER ISLAND AT 987 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW NEAR COLDFOOT
WILL WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER THE ARCTIC AS IT MOVES
NORTH. A THIRD LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COOK INLET MONDAY
MORNING AT 994 MB AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 984 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND JUST SOUTH OF DAWSON YT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT 978 MB. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

ARCTIC COAST...COMPLEX FORECAST COMPLICATED BY WAVE MOVING NORTH
PUSHING WARM AIR TO THE EAST AND PULLING COLD AIR SOUTH ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MAINLY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC HOWEVER IT
WILL MIX WITH RAIN TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FROM NUIQSUT WEST WARMING A BIT BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 35 DEGREES...TO THE EAST TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR A SHORT TIME. WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT SOME RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW. FROM BARROW
WEST WINDS WILL BE EAST BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF
BARROW WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 20 MPH FROM THE EAST BECOMING WEST
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WILL ISSUE SNOW
WARNINGS FOR ZONES 205 AND 206 FOR 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...TRICKY FORECAST OUT HERE ALSO
WITH THE AREAS WEST OF RUBY AND NORTH OF KALTAG NOT SEEING MUCH
OF THE WARM AIR. TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EAST OF GALENA WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THIS EVENING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.25 CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND EAST OF THE NULATO HILLS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTH OF HUSLIA WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. WILL ISSUE SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 217 AND 216 NORTH OF GALENA
FOR TONIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...BUT SOME RAIN SHADOWING WILL OCCUR SO PERIODS OF RAIN FROM
FAIRBANKS EAST. GAP FLOW WINDS IN PASSES AND TANANA JET AROUND
DELTA JUNCTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT SO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES
ALREADY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING MUCH TONIGHT SO THERE
MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER MAINLY SNOW SO WILL
ISSUE SNOW ADVISORY FOR WEST OF ARCTIC VILLAGE IN ZONE 218 AND
ZONE 219 NORTH OF ALLAKAKET FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.