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ALL overnight models now agree on a 4"+ rain events from Virginia to Maine. Going to be interesting to see where the heaviest happens. The moisture feed from the South and Atlantic is fascinating to see. Will post maps below
Post updates and OBS's in here.
Front and Gulf Moisture today/tomm.
Low pressures next 5 days.
Tropical system still in the air.
Here's the latest cone from NHC. They slowed the storm down..
This is Wednesday morning from the Euro. The front is over the area with heavy rains from PA to New England..
Notice what happens. Low pressure forms along the front and that rides north on the front bringing in more moisture.
Does the front stall off the coast?
Then on Saturday (This is where models vary) Takes the Tropical System and Euro hits Virginia with it. New England Spared the heaviest rains on this update. . GFS hits NYC with it.
Ingredient for weekend soaker: it's now Tropical Storm Joaquin. Wind shear too strong for it get to hurricane status, otherwise it has plenty of warm water for it to grow. Track is rather Sandy-like. Is there a strong high pressure system sitting in the North Atlantic preventing from curving northeastward? Or maybe the coastal low helps, I'd need to see a map.
Track is rather Sandy-like. Is there a strong high pressure system sitting in the North Atlantic preventing from curving northeastward?
YUP!
First .. Here's latest (6z) GFS precip total for next 7 days. Reminder, never use these maps as a forecast...just possibilities. Same as the snow total ones we post. Either way.. ingredients for lots of rain is there.
Back to why the Sandy like track... There is a strong blocking High Pressure SE Canada. So it cannot move the typical NE track so it's least resistance is into U.S. The stronger the High is, the further west the Tropical system goes.
Here comes the weather geek in me... Weather is all about Timing right??
Check this out... Current Surface Map.
See that High Pressure over the northern Plains? THAT will be one ingredient for whether or not the Tropical system hits the U.S this weekend.
At the Upper Levels there is already a Blocking High in place. See below!
Path of Least resistance is obviously not into the large Blocking High in the North Atlantic.
Strength & Position key but look at the current flow.. Tropical storm would do a Sandy for sure. I see why the Euro says Virginia gets hit.
It's not going towards that block there. It CANT so it has to veer West or just break apart and be nothing but moisture feeding from the Atlantic. I don't think Joaquin develops too strong but the system will affect the U.S
Here's the precipitation departure of the last three months for the Northeast. You can see down to Virginia there's been a precipitation deficit. The NYC area has been the worst off; I'm barely below average. So best track for Joaquin (or the other storms) would towards NYC though there'd be urban flooding issues...
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And it's Only to Friday evening! 
