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View Poll Results: When will London reach 20c?
Before 1 Mar 1 2.44%
1-15 Mar 0 0%
16-31 Mar 1 2.44%
1-15 Apr 10 24.39%
16-30 Apr 5 12.20%
1-15 May 9 21.95%
16 May or later 15 36.59%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-19-2016, 06:48 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
2014 had a poor June, a good July with a high around 26c and recorded a hotter temp than 2005 with 34.1c, but August was ruined by hurricane Bertha.

2005 was a typical summer, with a warm June and average Jul/Aug. Hottest day was 32.6c at Heathrow, 33.1c in the city.

June 2005, July 2014 and August 2005 would be good.
2005 doesn't seem to fit the current analogs. We had a mild April and cool May that year. Then June and July each averaged a high of 30C, August 29C, and September 28C




Quote:
The Sahara is incredibly hot at the moment, which is good for us.
That won't matter at all. You are way too far north. The desert southwest as scorching hot last summer and we still had a cool summer here.
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Old 04-19-2016, 07:02 AM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
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A hot Sahara/Med is good for hot summers here, as that's where most of our heatwaves come from.
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Old 04-19-2016, 07:06 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
A hot Sahara/Med is good for hot summers here, as that's where most of our heatwaves come from.
Sahara and the Med are always hot in the summer. That doesn't mean the jet stream would favor bringing that heat up 20 degrees north to 52N latitude lol. You make it sound like London is right around the corner from the Sahara.


Quite the opposite can actually be the case. If the jet stream troughs in the west bringing cooler conditions to say Arizona and New Mexico, it tends to then ridge in the east bringing us warmer conditions.

As was the case the last few days


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Old 04-19-2016, 07:34 AM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
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A hot Sahara will bring hot air into Western Europe on a southerly, which is how we get most of our hottest temps. It also helps if we have dry soils before hand.
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Old 04-19-2016, 07:51 AM
 
29,524 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
A hot Sahara will bring hot air into Western Europe on a southerly, which is how we get most of our hottest temps.
Yes, on a southerly jet.

Looks like July 2006 was cooler than average in the Sahara




Quote:
It also helps if we have dry soils before hand.
Dry soils is key for a scorching summer. Wet soils means cooler or just warm temps with higher humidity levels and more convection

Quote:
Water, in the air and in the soil, is the key. Because it takes more heat energy to raise the temperature of moist air than dry air, dry days tend to be warmer than humid days. Typically during droughts, the air is dry and the days are sunnier than usual — conditions that maximize daytime heat. Dry soils, too, release less water vapor into the air, and vegetation, another important source of airborne moisture, grows more slowly. Chicago's summer rain and temperature statistics bear it out: The city's 20 driest Junes and Julys have produced an average of 30 percent more 90-degree days than normal
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/w...ybrkr=79507f3a



Anyway the Canadian model shows an Atlantic flow for May




CFS



The NMME shows also shows average temps for May


Last edited by chicagogeorge; 04-19-2016 at 08:05 AM..
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Old 04-19-2016, 08:15 AM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
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If they are forecasting an average or slightly above average May, then they must be expecting warm or hot weather later on in the month. The first week of May sounds like it'll be well below average.
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Old 04-19-2016, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Finland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
If they are forecasting an average or slightly above average May, then they must be expecting warm or hot weather later on in the month. The first week of May sounds like it'll be well below average.
Don't lose your hope. Anything can happen in May in these latitudes (over 50N). Like May 2014 here. First awfully cold, then boom some very warm weather and boom boom down to below average temperatures:

Synop report summary
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Old 04-19-2016, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Seattle area
9,182 posts, read 12,128,391 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
It seems like all you do is post about how bad our climate is and how great yours is.
Are you serious? If you don't agree, that's fine, but facts are facts. B87 is the one who said you have been having below average summer months in the last 10 years. And no, Seattle doesn't have great climate.
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Old 04-19-2016, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botev1912 View Post
That could mean that's the new average. Climates are changing.

Yeah, easy for you to say as you have had unrelenting warmth for the last few years. If the climate isn't changing, and nature does the normal balancing act, you are due for some serious cold or rotten summers after the last two.
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Old 04-19-2016, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
The very cold winters of 2008-2013 were offset by the mild 13/14 and 15/16, so I expect August will eventually even out back to normal.

You forgot winter 2014/15 also. Winter 14/15 was warm also throughout many parts of Europe. You didn't have any where near the anomalies we had. We are talking coldest Feb in decades or ever in Feb 2015 here. Your winter 2014/2015 wasn't that bad at all.
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