Storm Prediction Center - Current Mesoscale Discussions
0644 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 301244Z - 301745Z
SUMMARY...MUCH OF EASTERN NEB INTO NORTHWEST IA SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WITH THIS OCCURRING GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM GAGE COUNTY
NEB TO IN VICINITY OF KOMA...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA THROUGH KDNS TO
KEST.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. LOCATIONS WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...AND INCLUDING THE KOMA AREA...SHOULD HAVE AN INITIAL MIXTURE
OF PRECIP TYPES WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING PREDOMINANT AT RATES OF
0.05-0.10 INCHES PER 3 HOURS. AROUND 15Z...MOST OF THESE LATTER
LOCATIONS SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND SNOW BECOMING THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
POLEWARD IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN
IA THIS MORNING...WITH EMBEDDED TRANSIENT BANDS HAVING PERIODIC
HIGHER INTENSITIES. TRENDS IN 1/ SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA AND 2/ THE 00-12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INDICATED ONGOING COLUMN SATURATION. AN INCREASE IN UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...GIVEN 1/
THE APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS AND
EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING...AND 2/ THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACCOMPANYING
70-80 KT 500-MB JET SPREADING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS
IA...SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AS AN INITIAL PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE 12Z OMA SOUNDING SUPPORTED FREEZING RAIN
PER THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
WEST...A COOLING COLUMN ATTENDANT TO AN INCREASE IN UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SUGGESTS MUCH OF EASTERN NEB INTO NORTHWEST IA SHOULD HAVE
MAINLY SNOW. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.
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