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I disagree with the graphs above. I live in southern BC, and during El Nino last winter we had a lot of snow. Even though it was one of the mildest winters on record he ski hills had A LOT of snow, and they loved it. It could have been the opposite. There's just no way to know ahead of time because there's simply no correlation between El Nino/La Nina and winter precipitation.
I disagree with the graphs above. I live in southern BC, and during El Nino last winter we had a lot of snow. Even though it was one of the mildest winters on record he ski hills had A LOT of snow, and they loved it. It could have been the opposite. There's just no way to know ahead of time because there's simply no correlation between El Nino/La Nina and winter precipitation.
I think that might depend on the severity of El Nino/La Nina. Possibly the weak or moderate ones may be have different precip patterns than the strong one like this El Nino?
I think that might depend on the severity of El Nino/La Nina. Possibly the weak or moderate ones may be have different precip patterns than the strong one like this El Nino?
Not to forget the position of it. West Based-Central-East Based. All matter.
Steve D today:
Quote:
The changes we are seeing in ENSO this week are rather striking.
Over the past several weeks from February to April we have seen a rapid collapse of the strong El Nino and a transition to the start of La Nina. The eastern regions are cooling the fastest, which isn’t a surprise as this area of the Pacific is the most shallow. However, even in NINO 3.4 sea surface temperatures are rapidly crashing and moving towards a neutral state likely sometime by mid May.
While this is happening, convection that was once robust over the date line has fallen apart which is a clear sign that the Sub Tropical jet stream is starting to weaken significantly. This factor will lead to less shear over the Tropical Atlantic and a far less active pattern from the Sub Tropical jet stream over North America. It is the Polar jet stream that is the most dominant jet stream and with the current blocking in the northwestern Atlantic, will lead to some rather active weather for the Plains through the Northern Mid Atlantic. The threat for severe thunderstorms should see an increase along with the ever increasing clashes of Polar air with Tropical air over the northern Mid Atlantic. A perfect example is actually today with temperatures in the 80’s in the Philadelphia metro and 40’s in northeastern Connecticut!
Now we know La Nina is coming on and fast. The next question is what will the orientation be and how fast will this set up. In the Summer months, the orientation of La Nina is not extremely important yet, especially in these early stages. However, the orientation of La Nina will be key as we move into the Fall and next Winter.
For those not aware, the "dateline" is 180/EQ area in Pacific
When there is convection/storms near the date line it enhances the sub tropical Jet stream (meaning precip into the U.S and Canada)
We've had 10 years of hot dry summers here. Last summer was the 2nd hottest on record and super dry. I don't know that it could get any hotter or drier.
It's pretty safe to say at this point summer of 98' and that La Nina year is not an analog. This El Nino crashing much faster!
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This is incredible to see. Very interesting! At this pace I will be wrong thinking it was going to be Fall when La Nina officially shows up. This rapid pace is mind blowing actually. Its not even May yet
The subsurface cool water has finally made it to the surface in the eastern Regions
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