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View Poll Results: When do you think La Nina will happen?
Spring 2016 3 4.84%
Summer 2016 16 25.81%
Fall 2016 23 37.10%
Winter 2016-17 11 17.74%
After Feb 2017 9 14.52%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-29-2016, 04:18 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Well that proves tom wrong! We had a positive PDO and enso neutral, and still had a mild winter and didnt drop below 20. Positive PDO does not always equal colder conditions. In fact The PDO was positive during all the 90s which were known for mild winters here in the east. I am convinced it is the amo that brought the cold in the 80s, and the epo and constantly positive pna which created lots of blocking and fueled a ridge in the west which brought us cold in 2014 and 2015.

It is the combo of warm pdo and cold amo. And that pdo was not strongly positive in 05-06 compared to the record breaker warm pdo this past May.
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Old 06-29-2016, 05:07 PM
 
Location: New York Area
35,064 posts, read 17,014,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
That couldn't be farther from the truth! Not too mention the north gets more frequent visits from artic air. Look at 1934, philly set its lowest temp of -11, it was -1 in Richmond, and 8 in Raleigh. Although yes its rare for us to be warm and the north well below normal. But it happens a lot where we are below average by a bit while the north is well below, this February artic outbreak is a good example.
Wasn't the 1934 outbreak weak Niña or cold neutral rather than strong?
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Old 06-29-2016, 05:10 PM
 
Location: New York Area
35,064 posts, read 17,014,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
its a theme I heard repeated in other forums, cold December then warm jan/feb. December 2005 was 3 degrees below average. Then January 2006 was very above average, a good 8 degrees above, and February was close to average. Not a bad winter imo. Only problem would be we only got trace amount of snow that year, but if it means we don't drop below 20 ill take it. Also when do you switch to extreme cold mode, I know march 1 is extreme warm mode for you but then when do you switch back to extreme cold mode lol? I'm guessing October.
August and September that year, 2005-6 were great, very warm and dry. October had, I believe, the second or third highest rainfall for any month in history. I don't remember November too well though I suppose I could look it up. December was cold, but January was toasty. February was not quite as warm, but we had what is now the second highest snowfall in NYC history, then the record highest.

Typical for a weak La Niña it developed relatively far north so NC did not get in on the action.
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Old 06-29-2016, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,604,784 times
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I would take another winter 05-06 here in Phoenix, it was warm, sunny and dry. Though ironically, there was a pattern shift in early Mar 06, and winter came late lol

I remember it being 75 on Christmas Day in Dec 05 (10 above avg)
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Old 06-29-2016, 06:29 PM
 
29,529 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Bastardi starting to really consider 84-85 as an analog to this winter. Whao!

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...84772837789696
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Old 06-29-2016, 06:34 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Bastardi starting to really consider 84-85 as an analog to this winter. Whao!

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...84772837789696
He is a sensible guy . I already know if this is winter is cold we will have people blaming it completely on sunspots.
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Old 06-29-2016, 06:40 PM
 
29,529 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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I was in 8th grade in 84-85. Let me tell you that winter was brutal.
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Old 06-29-2016, 07:06 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
I was in 8th grade in 84-85. Let me tell you that winter was brutal.
Well when you consider the entire polar vortex oops I mean Canadian vortex was dislodged completely and fully into the US I'm sure things get brutal lol. All time record lows were set that year, that year was unprecedented. prior to 1985 Raleigh had a record low of -2, can you believe that? My record low before 1985 was only -2. Now it's freaking -9, that's a pretty big jump. Im worried though, as skeptical as I am about sunspots and there winter correlation, I hear that low sunspots equal more SSW, the last thing we need in a winter with a 1985 setup is a SSW, in fact that winter had our warmest December prior to 2015 on record and I believe an average february, in fact had it not been for that SSW, January would have probably been mild too.
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Old 06-29-2016, 07:09 PM
 
3,212 posts, read 3,175,571 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
I was in 8th grade in 84-85. Let me tell you that winter was brutal.
how cold did it get to have to close the schools in chicago?
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Old 06-29-2016, 07:17 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
Reputation: 1996
Quote:
Originally Posted by ABrandNewWorld View Post
how cold did it get to have to close the schools in chicago?
Schools were delayed in 2014 here. I think Chicago had a -70 windchill during January 1985 they should have evacuated the freaking city lol.
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