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La Nina development very weak compared to where we were in 2010 at this time. Current supper +PDO dominating and slowing La Nina down unlike 2010 when there was a -PDO
Do you have access to a similar image to what the oceans looked like in 1983 at this time? I think this winter may look very similar to the 1983-1984 one.
Do you have access to a similar image to what the oceans looked like in 1983 at this time? I think this winter may look very similar to the 1983-1984 one.
I don't have access either but water temps in the 80s were mostly very cold all around globally, polar opposite of right now.
This could be the case we had when Super Nino was predicted in 2014 but didnt happen till 2015. Super Nina predicted 2016 but wont happen till 2017
-1.2 is my guess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Still looking for maps...
Here is the ENSO comparison between 1983 and 1999 for the month of August. Seems as if 1983 was way behind where even we're at now
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
La Nina development very weak compared to where we were in 2010 at this time. Current supper +PDO dominating and slowing La Nina down unlike 2010 when there was a -PDO
You have to remember that 1983 was after a super Niño but before that Niño was a thirty-year cold phase. Thus there was plenty of cold water left behind, and now after a lengthy warm phase we're stuck with a lot of warm water still on the map outside the immediate ENSO region. 2010 followed a moderate to borderline-strong Niño and not a super-Niño as just finished.
You have to remember that 1983 was after a super Niño but before that Niño was a thirty-year cold phase. Thus there was plenty of cold water left behind, and now after a lengthy warm phase we're stuck with a lot of warm water still on the map outside the immediate ENSO region. 2010 followed a moderate to borderline-strong Niño and not a super-Niño as just finished.
But wait. The PDO had flipped by late 1977 into a positive state, and during the 82-83' Nino it was strongly positive. Even after the weak La Nina, PDO stayed on ths positive side
1983 jan 0.56 fed 1.14 mar 2.11 april 1.87 may 1.80 june 2.36 JULY 3.51!! aug 1.85 sep 0.91 oct 0.96 nov 1.02 dec 1.69
1984 jan 1.50 feb 1.21 mar 1.77 april 1.52 may 1.30 june 0.18 july -0.18 aug -0.03 sep 0.67 oct 0.58 nov 0.71 dec 0.82
What's with the positive pdo? Everybody else is forecasting at the very least neutral conditions. Also with those kinds of oceans forget about 83-84. I stand by what I say,13-14 is a much better analog.
What's with the positive pdo? Everybody else is forecasting at the very least neutral conditions. Also with those kinds of oceans forget about 83-84. I stand by what I say,13-14 is a much better analog.
13-14 didn't follow an El Nino and that fall started out with a strongly negative PDO that flipped into positive that spring. This winter might be something completely different all together and could throw us some major curve balls that have the pro mets scratching their heads.
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