La Nina coming 2016-2017...but when (overcast, hot, warm, average)

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

I love his overall accuracy on long range forecasting

What was his forecast for 2012? Go back and check.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

What was his forecast for 2012? Go back and check.

You mean he got one wrong

Read it and weep

The company that has topped all others with the earliest and most accurate winter forecasts since it was founded in 2011 is WeatherBELL Analytics.

Winter forecast from the company that has been the most accurate the last few years | Weather - Home

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

You mean he got one wrong

Read it and weep



Winter forecast from the company that has been the most accurate the last few years | Weather - Home

What happened to the cold he predicted this year for the 2nd half of winter? He only called for the 1st half to be mild.

[NortheasternBound]

There's a chill in the air...I know it sounds too early, but yesterday when we went to sit down by the garden, under the shade, it would have felt much more comfortable with my sweat-shirt jacket on!
Currently, here in Aurora, ME, 71F and cloudy - low tonight 64F with a thunderstorm and heavy rain...Wind,
SSE 9mph with gust 15mph...

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by NortheasternBound

There's a chill in the air...I know it sounds too early, but yesterday when we went to sit down by the garden, under the shade, it would have felt much more comfortable with my sweat-shirt jacket on!
Currently, here in Aurora, ME, 71F and cloudy - low tonight 64F with a thunderstorm and heavy rain...Wind,
SSE 9mph with gust 15mph...

You're on the wrong side of the warm front; it's hot and sweaty here in the NYC area.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

You mean he got one wrong

Read it and weep



Winter forecast from the company that has been the most accurate the last few years | Weather - Home

This looks like an El Niño map. I have a lot of respect for Joe D'Aleo but I don't buy this.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

This looks like an El Niño map. I have a lot of respect for Joe D'Aleo but I don't buy this.

That is an El Nino map. The article is from last September.




And Tom, in today's summary, Bastadri does say that his Feb/Mar forecast for last winter was a bust



He is also showing that the CFSv2 is factoring in a weak La Nina and as the model detects this it's building a colder and colder winter projection


early July



end of July






August





Bastardi Dec-Feb (thinks December torch)




But brutal back end of winter

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

That is an El Nino map. The article is from last September.




And Tom, in today's summary, Bastadri does say that his Feb/Mar forecast for last winter was a bust



He is also showing that the CFSv2 is factoring in a weak La Nina and as the model detects this it's building a colder and colder winter projection


early July



end of July






August





Bastardi Dec-Feb (thinks December torch)




But brutal back end of winter

December torch? Looks more like December candlestick lol. Reminds me of 2013-14 and 2014-15 more and more.

[Saritra]

Hoping that below average area shifts a little bit more westward.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by muslim12

December torch? Looks more like December candlestick lol. Reminds me of 2013-14 and 2014-15 more and more.

Well that would be a torch in December if the 3 month winter is +1F but Jan-Mar -3F.


And that's exactly what he said... This winter may resemble 13-14', and 14-15'. Both were epic here. Though I don't recall much of a December torch. Maybe for the first couple of weeks of that month