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That's whay JB says, CFS is only reliable on it's own a few weeks before verification. It's seasonal outlooks months on advance are not at all reliable.
And I've been telling you that the +/- PDO on its own doesn't mean cold/warm winters or summers for the east, and Midwest. If anything the AMO alone is more important than the PDO on its own for the east coast, and based on that study I linked, much of the US east of the Rockies, but the combination of both are certainly factors.
Cold AMO has cooler summers for CONUS, warm AMO has warmer summers
So much for your theory on the CFS. Check out the most recent runs. Very cool over the eastern US including your area. No heat for you. This is the most recent runs. A complete flip from their other recent runs. How can that model be so erratic? And how come JB isn't talking about that now?
So much for your theory on the CFS. Check out the most recent runs. Very cool over the eastern US including your area. No heat for you. This is the most recent runs. A complete flip from their other recent runs. How can that model be so erratic? And how come JB isn't talking about that now?
It's not my theory. All models flip flop when trying to forecast an entire month of such a large are like the US.
Average of last 12 runs May 20th through the 23rd
The first week of June might start off cooler than normal for eastern CONUS
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 05-23-2016 at 05:35 PM..
TWC going with 85F tomorrow, 89F in NYC. NWS more conservative. Either way, bring it on.
Just in time for Meteo summer. Enjoy it..but get ready for the BDCF's
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
935 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable
So the heat will be turned off Sunday. GFS says it stays off next week, Euro says it comes back.
Garden is gonna explode. The rain from the ULL past 2 days was like magic for it. Now add heat and.. Whalah!
George, why do you think that graphic shows the highest chances along the West Coast? Of course it is the PDO. Look at the summer they had in 2012 or 2011.
I'm telling you I won't be happy till that whole coastline is wrapped by well below normal water temps. They have had enough years now with the warm water. Time for that to come to a crashing end. I hope this La Nina is so deep it crashes temps all over the West Coast.
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