January 22-24, 2016 Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Major Snowstorm (Chicago, night, storms, inches)

[Infamous92]

I think this is the best chance for snow we've had all winter.

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Can't imagine the hype once the East Coast media gets wind of these early snowfall model projections... Everything is bigger in NYC



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/688723191959703553

Lol it's always something "historic" until it actually happens, Sandy being the only exception.

[ilovemycomputer90]

Here's what my local NWS is saying:

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS
THE HIGH SHIFT FURTHER EAST LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN SPITE OF THIS, TEMPS COULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC ALL TRENDED
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE
IN THE WEEK.THE LATEST RUNS ALL HAVE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF DELMARVA. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS
FROMYESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS, AM HESITANT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST TOO
MUCH,HOWEVER, DID TREND POPS UP FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH THE LATEST TRACKS, MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE
MOSTLY SNOW IF THEY HAVE PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF
THE LOW TRACK TRENDS FURTHER NORTH, IT COULD TURN INTO A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Can't imagine the hype once the East Coast media gets wind of these early snowfall model projections... Everything is bigger in NYC

lol.. Especially being the first real snowstorm...get ready for the field day of headlines.

Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90

Here's what my local NWS is saying:

Don't you just hate that track thing? Always has to be so perfect. Nice to see them mention things though.

Originally Posted by Infamous92

I think this is the best chance for snow we've had all winter.

Agree, unlike last time this one has a Cold High to the north with cold air around, (not trying to catch up with it). We'll see. We all seen how things can change within days though.

Originally Posted by Infamous92

Lol it's always something "historic" until it actually happens, Sandy being the only exception.

Not always, weak storms are always showing up... Extremes not always but I agree on GFS showing it too many times...but sometimes that gets adjusted but I disagree on "the only exception"... I've been following models and storms for a long time now and I can basically go back and find "exceptions" where big snow storms were shown and actually happened. Definitely not all the time but it wasn't just Sandy..


The historic October snowstorm was shown a week before and I mentioned it with this post .... then started a thread for it here.


The big January 3, 2013 snowstorm models showed 7 days before. Ended up being a big snowstorm for New England. Thread here.

I can go on & on, remember the post Christmas storm? 10 days before showed that extreme and it happened..

Point is... it happens. But as usual the focus is on whether the storm is coming up the coast or not right now.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Point is... it happens. But as usual the focus is on whether the storm is coming up the coast or not right now.

shouldn't it also be on that energy coming over the Pacific?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

shouldn't it also be on that energy coming over the Pacific?

Yup but what that ends up doing futher downstream is our concern for the East.

California would benefit more from knowing exactly what that does, but we need to know if #1. A storm continues to show up and #2. the track. Good question but tough to answer because its all blended in.

We can go crazy and analyze if that energy is slower faster or south or north more in the Pacific right now vs yesterday or simply just look at the results models are showing.

I will post the 12z runs in a few

[BullochResident]

10 day forecast is showing an inch of rain down here next Friday with temps near 60 F.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

10 day forecast is showing an inch of rain down here next Friday with temps near 60 F.

You're definitely too far south for this one but yeah, keep us posted on what happens with the rain/storms.


========================


WPC updated their forecast surface map. Nice placement for the storm Saturday morning! Moves NE after this. Could this finally be the one??


Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

[Cambium]

Ok...


GFS12z.. Has it.. Not as extreme as the overnight run. (That was ridiculous) but notice its faster than the Canadian below. The storm for the same time frame is off shore. So GFS is faster with the system and that in turn means less snow of course.







Canadian12z... still has it.. Big heavy snowstorm... Notice its slower. Same time frame and shows the storm still on land just about to exit. I wont even look at the 850mb freezing line.. notice it has the storm north more than WPC does. I swear this storm better not keep coming north!





Euro12z just Wow! So ALL 3 AGAIN HAVE THE SNOWSTORM PHILLY TO BOSTON. DC and South NJ are on the border and rain with the Canadian

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Canadian12z... still has it.. Big heavy snowstorm... Notice its slower. Same time frame and shows the storm still on land just about to exit. I wont even look at the 850mb freezing line.. notice it has the storm north more than WPC does. I swear this storm better not keep coming north!

How about 100 miles further north?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

How about 100 miles further north?

Shhhh! lol. You will benefit from it with current track.. any more north and I will be to close to the you know what. lol (rain/snow line)




Keep track guys... GFS and Canadian were on it first. Euro finally came around last night and today. So 2 runs in a row for the Euro.. Not enough for huge confidence but because all 3 have something it increases.


https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/688796920614141952