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Location: João Pessoa,Brazil(The easternmost point of Americas)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
I don't agree. Why are our negative anomalies higher than Asia in winter? About Hudson Bay wrong again. The thing is frozen solid in winter and doesn't do a dang thing. In the 1980's the vortex was over Montreal and it didn't moderate it one iota.
Also you dont remember this last Winter in Eastern Asia?
Vladivostok(Same latitude as Portland,Maine),it also got only 1 day where temp raised above freezing,and the Coldest temp was in early February(-30C/-22F):
I was afraid to say "eastern" NA because Florida doesn't get visited quite as much. Did they even get any visits this winter? Even if they did, it is just the slightest, most fleeting stays.
I agree with this, i really dont like the term "eastern", it should be southeast, mid atlantic and northeast. I think the low temps of arctic air dont last very long in the south. There are enormous differences in air and sea temps once you start getting into the carolinas and southward, just last winter DC got more snowfall in a few hours than most of non mountain north carolina has had in the last 10 years. and its just around a 4 hour drive from dc to raleigh/chapel hill.
pensacola had a crazy low of 19 in january 2015 from the arctic air blast in 2015 but the rest of the month was very warm, alot of 60s and 70 for the rest of january , I think it only got below freezing a couple of winter days in 2015. 2010 had a few bad days in december and january but not much citrus damage around florida as people thought there would be , 2014 wasnt really that bad either. 1985 was much worse.
If the southeast got the kind of cold the northeast gets , the damage to crops would be devastating, and the southeast certainly doesnt have the infrastructure (trucks etc) to handle any sort of sizable snowfall
Last edited by floridanative10; 05-09-2016 at 12:05 PM..
US will get bigger negative anomalies because it is Warmer in general.
That's actually a great point and probably related if true. The anomalies are greater in Eastern U.S because the daily averages are warmer or maybe its better to say it's easier for Eastern U.S to get warmer than those areas of Asia so our averages are as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
Okay, recent decade what has been going on that it prefers eastern NA? That is what I'm interested to know.
For example, why is it that we in the NE in 2015 had the coldest Feb on record, while I think someone mentioned that Paris hasn't had its coldest ever winter month in decades?
I bet you someone out there right now is studying it. Being it just gained traction in the media and public there is more awareness of its affects. I just think the Global puzzle is way too big to put enough pieces together to understand the big picture.
Low sun spots is one main cause of a warmer stratosphere which is the cause of the PV split but there are so many other reasons why it goes one way vs the other. Melting Arctic, Cold North Atlantic, Blocking, timing, Volcanoes, PDO, AMO, QBO, Frozen waters, Siberia snow cover, ect ect.
There are lag times with things.
Gulf of Alaska storm = Eastern U.S trough 8-10 days out or something like that
Bering Sea weather = Eastern U.S pattern 2-3 weeks out
Sudden Stratosphere Warming = weakening and splitting Polar Vortex months out
Sun spots/cycles = weather and pattern effects months, years or decades out
ect, ect
Could this be the reason for recent Polar Vortex splits and North America just getting them by chance? Or maybe other reasons unknown like melting Arctic or cold North Atlantic?
I just finished reading this article and wondered what some of our weather gurus think about it. They think that North America will see colder times in late winter to early spring.
I just finished reading this article and wondered what some of our weather gurus think about it. They think that North America will see colder times in late winter to early spring.
Its so nice to read about something without "you know what" being mentioned. Lets talk about science without blaming an agenda driven statement. And this is special coming from TWC.
Thanks for posting, good stuff.
Yes, weakening Vortex and splitting = Colder mid Latitudes...but which Continent.
Yes, low sea ice leads to a displacement of the Vortex even further south.
Yes, the Stratosphere warming plays a role
A strong, consolidated Vortex means a winter like last year. It actually split but in January, too late for Winter.
I don't agree on N America seeing colder times in Late winter and spring but that seems to be the case lately, its not correlated though. Just luck of the draw when it happens.
Keep in mind, it just split this weekend... so indications are an Early winter start for Canada and Eastern U.S. We'll see.
As we know, a weaker Polar Vortex is what we need for very cold weather. The weaker Vortex allows it to split and move around either to North America, Asia, Europe. Low Arctic Sea Ice helps with this.
As of right now (Oct 2016) it's at the weakest state on record! (blue line). CFS Control Forecast (green) shows it stays weak through most of winter. 1 member has it going back to normal. (purple)
Notice last year (red line).. It was Strong and didn't split, hence the warm winter.
Remember the historic cold February 2015? Check out the PV Feb 2015 ........ Don't forget.. there's a lag time! Have to look at the month(s) before it. Notice in November it was strong, in December it split, January still split and dropped south more and naturally was colder/stronger within it, February consolidated and retreated to the other side.
Now look at February 2014 ... March 2014 was a cold month for Northeast U.S
You have to click to advance through the days, but you can actually watch what happened. The Northern polar vortex is a fascinating thing to study.
The high that moved in from the Pacific and became part of the pattern is an obvious influence. This is repeated in various ways each time the vortex "splits", something not found in the literature on this.
You can see how the cold air is then funneled south.
For example, the vortex on 12-28-2013, you can watch how it changes into the bringer of the record cold January temps.
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